‰ Now 18 WPM transition file follows ‰

New sunspot groups appeared on every day over the past reporting
week, January 12 to 18, until yesterday, January 19 which had no new
spots.  On January 12, new sunspot group 1396 appeared, and the next
day two more, 1397 and 1398, popped into view. On January 14 four
new sunspot groups appeared, 1399, 1400, 1401 and 1402. January 15
saw group 1391 vanish and new group 1403 emerge. Two more appeared
January 16, 1404 and 1405, while 1397 vanished. On January 17, 1406
appeared and 1395 disappeared while 1407 emerged on January 18.
Average daily sunspot numbers rose this week from 90.6 to 116.9, or
29 percent. But solar flux was about the same, changing from 134.9
to 133.4.  The latest prediction from USAF/NOAA has a solar flux of
150 on January 20 and 21, 155 on January 22, 160 on January 23 to
27, 140 on January 28 and 29, and 135 on January 30 through February
6. We are still looking for a solar flux peak of 165 on February 17
to 21.  The predicted flux values of 160 on January 23 to 27 are
markedly higher than the 145 predicted last week for the same dates.
Predicted planetary A index is 6, 10, 8, 10 and 8 on January 20 to
24 and 5 on January 25 through February 1, 6 on February 2 to 4, and
5 on February 5 to 8.  Roger Larson, KF6IVA of Harrison, Maine wrote
and referred to errors in the solar article in The Atlantic which
was linked from last weeks Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP002.
More information about Rogers concerns can be found in teleprinter,
packet and Internet versions of Propagation Forecast Bulletin
ARLP003.  We mentioned Belgian website www.spaceweatherlive.com in
Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP003 on January 22, 2010. If you
click on the Solar Activity link toward the top and select Sunspot
Regions from the drop down, it takes you to a solar activity line.
When I see this early Friday morning, at 1145 UTC, it lists seven
regions, or sunspot groups, in the table and gives the number of
sunspots in each.  You may recall from past bulletins that the daily
sunspot number is calculated by multiplying the number of regions by
ten, then adding one for each sunspot.  As there are 7 regions and
47 spots, the sunspot number would be 70 plus 47, or 117. When I
look at www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt I see that the
sunspot number for January 19 is 117.  If you click on the image of
the Sun to the left of the table on this site, it takes you to a
sunspot regions link.  There are details and recent images for each
sunspot group. You can also see details on these at
www.swpc.noaa.gov.  Note the daily reports are shown with the date
for the following day. So the January 19 report was issued in the
early part of January 20, so it gets a January 20 date.  Note the
Space Weather Live site offers an email aurora alert.  On Wednesday,
Science Daily published a brief article on the Solar Dynamics
Observatory at www.sciencedaily.com.  There seems to be energy from
a solar flare headed our way.  However, on Thursday the prediction
at www.swpc.noaa.gov for January 19 showed planetary A index rising
to 10 on Saturday, January 21, 8 on Sunday, and 10 again on Monday.
That doesnt seem like a large effect, but perhaps Fridays forecast
will be more dramatic.  Sunspot numbers were 57, 81, 145, 141, 120,
152, and 122, with a mean of 116.9. 10.7 cm flux was 116.8, 124.1,
132.3, 133.5, 139.7, 139, and 148.1, with a mean of 133.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 6, 3, 3, 8, 5, and 4, with a
mean of 4.9. Estimated mid latitude A indices were 5, 8, 3, 4, 8, 4,
and 4, with a mean of 5.1.

‰ End of 18 WPM transition file ‰