‰ Now 18 WPM transition file follows ‰

Solar activity made a healthy jump over the past week, with average
daily sunspot numbers up over 30 points to 120.9, and average daily
solar flux increasing over 27 points to 136.5.  The most active day
for geomagnetic indices was May 1, when the planetary A index
reached 21 and the high latitude college A index, measured near
Fairbanks, Alaska, was a whopping 57. That number has been higher,
but only twice in the past six months, when it was 64 on March 1 and
79 on March 17.  The latest forecast has solar flux at 155 on May 3
and 4, 150 on May 5 and 6, 145 on May 7 to 9, then 140, 125 and 120
on May 10 to 12, 125 on May 13 to 15, 120 on May 16 and 17, then
125, 120, and 130 on May 18 to 20, 135 on May 21 and 22 and 130 on
May 23 and 24.  Predicted planetary A index is 8 on May 3 and 4, 12
on May 5, 8 on May 6, 5 on May 7 to 20, then 15, 10 and 15 on May 21
to 23, and then 5 forever after that. This is from a 45 day
forecast, so we wont really see quiet conditions forever, but the
forecast ends on June 16 with planetary A index of 5 until then.
F.K. Janda, OK1HH has another short forecast for geomagnetic
conditions, like last week. He sees the geomagnetic field quiet to
unsettled May 3 to 10, quiet to active May 11 and 12, and quiet to
unsettled May 13 to 19. Thats it.  NASA released a new solar cycle
prediction on May 1, but it wasnt really new. These arrive at the
start of every month, and remain the same since March 1. On March 1,
2013 the prediction for the smoothed International Sunspot Number at
the cycle peak shifted from 69 to 66 for Fall 2013. The 2013
Autumnal Equinox begins in about four months and three weeks.  This
week the May 2013 issue of CQ Magazine arrived, and across the top
of the cover was this headline, Another Double Peak Sunspot Cycle?
We certainly hope so.  Time to review our 3 month moving average of
sunspot numbers, which has increased. The average daily sunspot
number for February, March and April was 85.2. The average daily
sunspot number for the three month periods centered on September
2012 through March 2013 were 81.2, 82.3, 74.4, 82.8, 73.6, 80.7 and
85.2. This is a moving average, so 81.2 was the average for August
through October 2012, 82.3 was September through November 2012 and
so on. But this involves a bit of cherry picking of the data, as the
three previous periods averages were 96.5, 91.9 and 89.9.  The
average sunspot number for the month of April was 112.8, for March
it was 81.1 and February was 60.1.  Eric Ferguson, VE3CR of
Burlington, Ontario sent his father in law Bruce Jones an article
about solar flares, and they both wondered why there are no solar
flares at the Suns poles.  I passed this question on to Robert
Steenburgh, KA8JBY who is a Senior Space Weather Forecaster at the
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.  Sunspots typically form at
mid latitudes, equatorward of around 40 degrees, at the beginning of
the solar cycle, and the breeding grounds drift towards the equator
over the course of the cycle. This behavior is attributed to the
solar dynamo.  See //solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/dynamo.shtml.  You
can find a paper on flare distribution for Solar Cycle 23 at,
//www.ias.ac.in/jaa/junsep2006/JAA10.pdf Sunspot numbers were 93,
104, 100, 97, 136, 165, and 151, with a mean of 120.9. 10.7 cm flux
was 119.2, 121.9, 127, 131.7, 142.4, 154.4, and 159.2, with a mean
of 136.5.  Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 17, 6, 5, 5, 7, and
21, with a mean of 9.9. Estimated mid latitude A indices were 14,
18, 6, 4, 5, 6, and 16, with a mean of 9.9.

‰ End of 18 WPM transition file ‰