‰ Now 18 WPM transition file follows ‰

Last Thursday, July 17, had no sunspots at all, a sobering reminder
of how weak this solar cycle is. We have to go way back to August
14, 2011 to find the last spotless day, and there was only one other
day with no sunspots in 2011, on January 27.  On July 18 two new
sunspot regions emerged, but the sunspot number was only 26. Two
days later, on Sunday July 20 the sunspot number was just 17, and
another new sunspot group emerged. On Tuesday two new sunspot
regions appeared with a sunspot number of 40, and the next day, July
23, the sunspot number was 55 and another new one emerged.  Solar
flux ranged from a low of 86.1 on July 19 to a high of 99.1 on July
23. Outside of those seven days, on July 24 the solar flux was 104,
and the sunspot number remained at 55.  Average daily sunspot
numbers from July 17 to 23 were only 25.9, down from 96.9 in the
previous seven day period. Average daily solar flux dropped nearly
41 points to 90.3.  Predicted solar flux for the near term is 110,
115 and 125 on July 25 to 27, 140, 155 and 170 on July 28 to 30,
then 185, 170, and 155 on July 31 through August 2, 150 on August 3
to 5, then 145, 140, 135 and 125 on August 6 to 9, 120, 115 and 110
on August 10 to 12, 105 on August 13 and 14, then dropping down to
85 on August 18, and rising to 150 on August 29.  Planetary A index
was quiet over the past week, and is predicted at 8 on July 25 and
26, 5 on July 27 and 28, 12 and 10 on July 29 and 30, 5 on July 31
through August 4, 8 on August 5 and 6, 5 on August 7 to 9, 8 on
August 10 and 11, then 5 on August 12 to 16, 8 on August 17 and 18,
5 on August 19 and 20, then 10 and 8 on August 21 and 22.  F.K.
Janda, OK1HH says to expect mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions July
25 and 26, quiet to unsettled July 27, quiet July 28, quiet to
unsettled July 29, quiet July 30 and 31, quiet to unsettled August
1, quiet on August 2, quiet to active August 3, quiet to unsettled
August 4 to 7, quiet August 8, quiet to active August 9, active to
disturbed August 10, quiet to active August 11, quiet August 12 to
15, mostly quiet August 16, quiet to unsettled August 17, mostly
quiet August 18, quiet August 19, quiet to active August 20 and
active to disturbed August 21.  And Pete Corp, K2ARM also reported
on 6 meters on July 23.  Propagation finally came through for my
area in the Northeast. I worked 3 more countries plus more stations
in other countries I have worked before. The 6 meter CW portion was
all signals from Europe, great operators. It sure looked like F2 but
it couldnt be.  Has to be E2.  On July 21 Pete wrote, Tad, that was
very good information on the cycles and the days with no sun spots
and even though the HF bands are poor now and the SFI is only 89, 6
meters opened to Europe this morning and even I worked 2 new
countries. It seems like E skip during the summer can happen most
anytime and my records for the last 3 years show good openings every
5 or 6 days. Today I could copy 10 or more Europeans but could only
work the two.  Sunspot numbers were 0, 26, 27, 17, 16, 40, and 55,
with a mean of 25.9.  10.7 cm flux was 88.6, 88.5, 86.1, 87.1, 90.1,
92.6, and 99.1, with a mean of 90.3. Estimated planetary A indices
were 5, 3, 3, 3, 5, 5, and 6, with a mean of 4.3.  Estimated mid
latitude A indices were 6, 4, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7, with a mean of 5.

‰ End of 18 WPM transition file ‰