‰ Now 18 WPM transition file follows ‰

We saw a nice increase in the level of solar activity this week, and
the outlook for the near term looks good, or at least, interesting.
Average daily sunspot numbers for the period September 4 to 10
increased from 85.1 to 152.1, and average daily solar flux rose from
126.7 to 155.8. Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average
planetary A index declining from 14.7 to 7.9, and average mid
latitude A index dropped from 13.4 to 8.3. These latest numbers are
compared to the previous seven days, August 28 through September 3.
//Spacenews.com reports a couple of CME blasts are headed toward
Earth, and they were launched September 9 and 10 from sunspot 2158.
The sunspot was in a most favorable position for launching ejections
in our direction. It was right in the center of the visible solar
disc from Earths perspective. Dont worry, this is not some doomsday
event, although it is strong.  At 0520 UTC on September 11, which
was 1020 PM September 10 on the West Coast, the Australian Space
Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic warning. They predict increased
geomagnetic activity on September 11 to 13 due to coronal mass
ejections. Their forecast calls for unsettled conditions with
possible minor storm periods on September 11, active to major storm
levels September 12, and active geomagnetic conditions September 13.
From NOAA/USAF the predicted planetary A index is 40, 60, 25 and 12
on September 12 to 15, 5 on September 16 to 24, then 18 on September
25, 15 on September 26 and 27, 12 on September 28 and 29, 10 on
September 30 and 5 on October 1 to 4.  Predicted solar flux is 152
on September 12, 150 on September 13 and 14, 148 on September 15 and
16, 146 on September 17, 145 on September 18 to 20, then 150, 145
and 135 on September 21 to 23, 130 on September 24 and 25, 125 on
September 26 and 27, 130 on September 28 and 29, 145 on September 29
and 30, then 150, 145 and 140 on October 1 to 3, 135, 140 and 145 on
October 4 to 6 and 150 on October 7 to 11.  Expect aurora in
northern latitudes, in the Northern Hemisphere, and rough HF
conditions on Friday, September 12. The predicted planetary A index
of 40 on Friday and 60 on Saturday indicates a moderate to strong
geomagnetic storm.  You can watch the fun at
//www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/DGD.txt which is updated every
three hours. When you see the K index above 3, this indicates active
geomagnetic conditions. Each single point higher represents a large
increase in activity.  The A index represents an average of each 3
hour K index over 24 hours. It is not meaningful to average the K
index directly because it is non linear, so the number is converted
back into a value which has a direct linear relationship to the
magnetometer readings upon which the K index is based, then it is
averaged.  Sunspot numbers were 136, 124, 170, 154, 158, 162, and
161, with a mean of 152.1. 10.7 cm flux was 146, 143.9, 157.3,
160.2, 163.9, 159, and 160, with a mean of 155.8.  Estimated
planetary A indices were 7, 8, 9, 8, 6, 8, and 9, with a mean of
7.9. Estimated mid latitude A indices were 7, 10, 7, 10, 7, 8, and
9, with a mean of 8.3.


‰ End of 18 WPM transition file ‰