‰ NOW 18 WPM transition file ‰ It seemed to me that solar activity perked up again over the past week, but the numbers are about the same as last week. Average daily sunspot numbers went from 98.9 to 97.4, but on Thursday, November 26, our reporting week runs from Thursday through Wednesday, the sunspot number was 155, and the day before it was 177. One new sunspot region appeared on November 20, another on November 23, three more on November 24, two more on November 26 and one, after the reporting week, on November 27, the Thanksgiving holiday. Average daily solar flux rose from 164.4, in last weeks bulletin, to 168.9. The day after the end of the reporting week solar flux was up to 178.8. On November 24, the Penticton observatory in British Columbia reported an unusually high solar flux number for the noon reading. As I recall, it was around 300 or higher, and when we see an outlier like this which is inconsistent with readings before and after that time, we always check the NOAA archive at //www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt . NOAA changed it to 172. But then a few days later the Penticton reading at noon for November 24 was reduced to 144.4, which is far below readings near that time. Not sure what all this means, but were sticking with the NOAA estimate. These numbers are changed when the hardware at Penticton gets swamped with energy from a solar flare, and so the flux reading is meaningless. 10.7 cm solar flux is measured in British Columbia three times per day, at 1800 UTC, 10 AM local time, 2000 UTC, noon local time, and 2200 UTC, 2 PM local time. But the local noon reading is always the official solar flux for the day. On November 24 the morning reading at 1800 UTC was 170.1 and the 2200 UTC afternoon reading was 168.4, so the 172 estimate seems more likely than 144.4. You can see all of those readings at //www.spaceweather.gc.ca/ . The latest solar flux prediction from Thursday, November 27 is 180 on November 28, 185 on November 29 through December 1, 180 on December 2, 170 on December 3 and 4, then 160 and 150 on December 5 and 6, 140 on December 7 and 8, 145 on December 9 and 10, 140 on December 11 to 13, 150 on December 14, and 155 on December 15 and 16. Flux values peak at 170 on December 18 to 20, then drop to 115 on December 31 through January 2, 2015. Expected planetary A index is 5 on November 28 to 30, 18 on December 1, 15 on December 2, 8 on December 3 and 4, 10 on December 5, 8 on December 6, 5 on December 7 to 10, then 10, 15 and 20 on December 11 to 13, 10 on December 14 and 15, then 8, 10 and 12 on December 16 to 18 and 10 on December 19 and 20. Petr Kolman, OK1MGW gives us his outlook for geomagnetic conditions. He says to expect quiet to unsettled conditions November 28 and 29, quiet to active November 30, active to disturbed December 1, quiet to active December 2, quiet to unsettled December 3 and 4, mostly quiet December 5, quiet to active December 6 and 7, quiet to unsettled December 8, mostly quiet December 9 and 10, quiet to unsettled December 11, quiet to active December 12 and 13, quiet to unsettled December 14 and 15, quiet to active December 16 and 17, quiet to unsettled December 18 to 20, quiet on December 21 to 23, and mostly quiet on December 24. Sunspot numbers were 83, 68, 64, 66, 111, 120, and 170, with a mean of 97.4. 10.7 cm flux was 168.1, 162.5, 166.6, 173.1, 172, 169.4, and 170.9, with a mean of 168.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 15, 10, 10, 7, 5, and 5, with a mean of 9. Estimated mid latitude A indices were 8, 10, 8, 9, 5, 4, and 4, with a mean of 6.9. ‰ End of 18 WPM transition file ‰