‰ NOW 18 WPM transition file follows ‰ Compared to the previous seven days, solar activity dropped over the past week December 4 to 10 with average daily sunspot numbers down 63.6 points to 88.4, and average daily solar flux off 32.5 points to 139.6. But both numbers were higher on December 11, a good sign. The latest forecast has solar flux at 155, 160, and 165 on December 12 to 14, 170 on December 15 to 17, 165 on December 18, 170 on December 19 and 20, 165 and 150 on December 21 and 22, 155 on December 23 to 27, 150 on December 28 and 29, 145 and 140 on December 30 and 31, 135 on January 1 to 4, then 140, 145, 150, 155 and 160 on January 5 to 9 and 165 on January 10 to 12. It then reaches a peak of 175 on January 14 and 15. Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 12, 18 on December 13, 15 on December 14 and 15, 12 on December 16 to 18, 10 on December 19 and 20, 5 on December 21 to 27, 8 on December 28 to 30, 10 on December 31 and January 1, then 12, 25, 15 and 10 on January 2 to 5, 8 on January 6 and 7, 10 on January 8 and 9, 8 on January 10 to 12, 10 and 12 on January 13 and 14, and 10 on January 15 and 16. Lets see what OK1MGW has for us in his prediction for geomagnetic conditions. OK1MGW sees quiet to active conditions December 12 and 13, quiet to unsettled December 14 and 15, quiet to active December 16 and 17, quiet to unsettled December 18 to 20, mostly quiet December 21, quiet December 22, mostly quiet December 23 and 24, quiet December 25 and 26, quiet to unsettled December 27 and 28, mostly quiet December 29 to 31, quiet to unsettled January 1 and 2, active to disturbed January 3, quiet to active January 4 and 5, and quiet to unsettled January 6 and 7. He believes there will be an increase in solar wind on December 13, 16 to 18 and January 2 to 5. Dont forget this weekend is the annual ARRL 10 Meter Contest. See //www.arrl.org/10 dash meter for rules and general information. This is a really fun event, and due to the nature of ten meters, it always holds many surprises. The Geminids meteor shower peaks this weekend, and it is likely that ionized meteor trails could enhance propagation at the high end of the HF spectrum. It is also really easy to get a ten meter station on the air with minimal effort. A half wave dipole is only about 16.5 feet long for this band, and you can hang it off just about anything to get it some minimal distance in the air. Also, Technician Class hams can participate in this one using SSB on 28.3 to 28.5 MHz and CW on 28.0 to 28.3 MHz. There is also an easy 10 meter vertical described at the ARRL URL above for the 10 meter contest. I was predicting conditions should be slightly better than they were during the 2013 contest, with somewhat higher solar activity about the same geomagnetic instability. But now the geomagnetic conditions look a little worse. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has transitioned to their new servers, so you will want to check //ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt and //ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DGD.txt for solar flux, sunspot and geomagnetic indices, and //ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/ for the daily 45 day forecast. Of course Canada still serves up their same three times per day solar flux numbers from their observatory. Sunspot numbers were 137, 97, 73, 58, 77, 80, and 97, with a mean of 88.4. 10.7 cm flux was 157.6, 136.8, 128.7, 131.8, 132.6, 139.7, and 149.8, with a mean of 139.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 11, 13, 28, 17, 15, and 9, with a mean of 14.9. Estimated mid latitude A indices were 8, 8, 10, 19, 11, 12, and 6, with a mean of 10.6. ‰ END OF 18 WPM transition file ƒ