‰ Now 18 WPM transition file follows ‰

Solar activity made a strong comeback this week, with the average
daily sunspot number on December 11 to 17 rising 57 points to 145.4
from the previous seven days, while average daily solar flux was up
28.1 points to 167.7.  But then toward the end of the week, activity
made a large jump, with solar flux at 213.2 on Thursday.  Predicted
solar flux is 220, 225, 220 and 210 on December 19 to 22, then 200,
195, 190 and 160 on December 23 to 26, then 140 on December 27 to
29, 135 on December 30 through January 1, 140 on January 2 to 4, 145
on January 5, 155 on January 6 and 7, 160 on January 8, and 165 on
January 9 to 12. Flux values then peak at 175 on January 14 and 15.
Predicted planetary A index is 10, 15, 10 and 8 on December 19 to
22, 5 on December 23 to 27, 8 on December 28 to 30, 10 on December
31 and January 1, then 12, 25, 15 and 10 on January 2 to 5, 8 on
January 6 and 7, 10 on January 8 and 9, and 8 on January 10 to 12.
OK1MGW graces us with another of his geomagnetic forecasts. He
expects, although is uncertain about, quiet to active conditions on
December 19, mostly quiet December 20 and 21, quiet on December 22,
mostly quiet December 23 and 24, quiet on December 25 and 26, quiet
to unsettled December 27 and 28, mostly quiet December 29 to 31,
quiet to unsettled January 1 and 2, active to disturbed on January
3, quiet to active January 4 and 5, quiet to unsettled January 6 and
7, quiet to active January 8, quiet to unsettled January 9 and 10,
quiet to active January 11, and mostly quiet January 12 to 14.  He
expects increased solar wind on January 2 to 5 and 8 to 11.  Peter
Kolman, OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation Interest Group, has been
producing weekly forecasts with OK1HH since 1978.  On December 17
the 10.7 cm receivers at Penticton must have become overloaded,
because NOAA/USAF adjusted the noon reading down from 198.5 to 192,
which correlates to the earlier 1000 AM reading of 191.5, rounded
off.  We saw something similar on November 24, but in the opposite
direction. The three flux readings for the day were 170.1, 144.4,
and 168.4 at 1000 AM, noon and 200 PM. It is always a rounded off
noon reading that NOAA reports, but this time it was bumped up from
144.4 to 172, I suppose to be more consistent with the other
readings. Ive never noticed this before.  We saw another lowering of
the reported flux number on November 5 when the three readings were
135.7, 145.2 and 136.3, but NOAA reported 135 for the day.  One
display at //www.roswellmeteor.com/ shows Denniss results during the
recent Geminid meteor shower. I think we can assume that all these
displays are quiet most of the time, and that there are no local
broadcasters using the same channels.  Dont forget the ARRL CW
Rookie Roundup this weekend. If you received your license in 2012,
2013 or 2014, you are a Rookie and eligible to compete.  The rest of
us are encouraged to participate, work the newcomers, and submit
check logs.  Sunspot numbers were 115, 132, 121, 175, 152, 169, and
154, with a mean of 145.4. 10.7 cm flux was 147.5, 154.2, 159.8,
166.4, 169.3, 184.6, and 192, with a mean of 167.7.  Estimated
planetary A indices were 6, 21, 9, 11, 15, 8, and 8, with a mean of
11.1. Estimated mid latitude A indices were 4, 15, 7, 9, 11, 7, and
6, with a mean of 8.4.

‰ End of 18 WPM transition file ƒ