‰  NOW 18 WPM transition file follows‰

Sunspot numbers and solar flux both rose this week.  Average daily
sunspot numbers from March 19 to 25 were up 24.8 points to 83.9,
compared to the previous seven day period.  Average daily solar flux
rose from 117.5 to 122.4.  Average planetary A index dropped from
29.4 to 19.4, although conditions continued to be active.  March 22
and 23 had planetary A index numbers at 24 and 21, but there was
nothing like the number 117 on March 17, a huge, huge level for the
A index.  We saw one new sunspot region on March 19, two on March
21, three on March 22 and three more on March 23, another new one on
March 24 and yet another two days later on Thursday, March 26.
Predicted solar flux is 135 on March 27 to 30, 145 on March 31 and
April 1, 140 on April 2 and 3, 130 on April 4 and 5, 125 on April 6
to 8, 120 on April 9 and 10, 115 on April 11 to 19, 120 on April 20,
115 on April 21, 120 on April 22 and 23, and 125 on April 24 to 27.
The forecast for the next few days changed dramatically from
Wednesday nights flux prediction, which had flux values at 150 on
March 27 and 28, 145 on March 29 and 30 and ran in the ARRL Letter.
As of Thursday night, March 26, the predicted value for all four of
those days sank to 135.  On March 25 the predicted planetary A index
for March 26 was 8, which turned out to be precisely correct.  The
latest A index prediction shows 15 on March 27, 25 on March 28 and
29, then 15, 10 and 5 on March 30 through April 1, 12 on April 2 to
4, 5 on April 5 and 6, 8 on April 7 and 8, 5 on April 9 to 11, then
15 and 30 on April 12 and 13, 20 on April 14 to 16, 15 on April 17,
20 on April 18 and 19, then 12, 5 and 15 on April 20 to 22, and 25
on April 23 and 24.  Petr Kolman, OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation
Interest Group, predicts geomagnetic conditions should be quiet to
unsettled March 27, active to disturbed March 28 and 29, quiet to
unsettled March 30 through April 2, quiet to active April 3, quiet
to unsettled April 4 and 5, quiet on April 6, mostly quiet April 7
to 10, quiet to unsettled April 11 and 12, active to disturbed April
13 to 16, quiet to unsettled April 17, quiet to active April 18 and
19, and mostly quiet April 20 to 22.  You can see that the
geomagnetic conditions are all over the place, with many active
periods.  This is typical after the solar cycle passes its peak,
which for cycle 24 was about a year ago.  You can see the peaks in
the smoothed, averaged over a whole year, sunspot numbers and solar
flux in tabular form on pages 14 and 15 at //legacy dash
www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf2062.pdf It looks like sunspot
numbers peaked around March through May 2014 and solar flux around
May through July of the same year.  The word Legacy in the above URL
reminds us that these weekly publications are moving to
//ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/ where you select the year of
interest, in this case 2015, of course, in the folder names toward
the bottom of the page, then the WeeklyPDF folder.  2015 began with
prf2053.  John Burgoon, KC9TUI of Bloomington, Indiana wrote about
his trip to Florida, which coincided with the huge geomagnetic
upsets of over a week ago.  Sunspot numbers were 71, 27, 40, 88,
119, 127, and 115, with a mean of 83.9.  10.7 cm flux was 109.3,
112.7, 113.6, 122.4, 128.1, 133, and 137.8, with a mean of 122.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 28, 24, 14, 24, 21, 12, and 13,
with a mean of 19.4.  Estimated mid latitude A indices were 19, 18,
12, 16, 16, 9, and 10, with a mean of 14.3.

‰  END OF 18 WPM transition file ƒ