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Solar activity strengthened during the past week. Average daily
sunspot numbers increased from 34.3 to 112.4, and average daily
solar flux rose from 97.8 to 131.4. The middle latitude A index for
June 10 and 11 can only be guessed, due to some sort of outage
depriving us of K index data over a 27 hour period. The outage began
sometime after 1200 UTC June 9 and ended sometime before 1800 UTC
June 10.  June 8 was the day with the most geomagnetic upset, when
the planetary A index rose to 33.  Predicted planetary A index for
the near term is 20, 15 and 16 on June 12 to 14, then 10, 8 and 6 on
June 15 to 17, then 5 on June 18 through July 3. We then see another
active period on July 4 to 9 when the predicted A index is 8, 20,
28, 20, 10 and 8, followed by 6, 5 and 8 on July 10 to 12, and 5 on
July 13 and beyond.  At 0202 UTC on June 10 the Australian Space
Forecast Centre predicted increased geomagnetic activity on June 12
due to a coronal mass ejection.  They issued a second warning at
0336 UTC predicting a glancing blow at Earth early in the UTC day on
June 12.  Predicted solar flux for the near term is 140 on June 12
and 13, then 135, 130, 125, 120 and 115 on June 14 to 18, 120 on
June 19 to 26, 115 on June 27, and 120 on June 28 and 29. The
forecast then shows solar flux rising to 145 on July 5 to 7 before
settling back to 120 after July 12.  Petr Kolman, OK1MGW of the
Czech Propagation Interest Group gives us a geomagnetic forecast
this week. He expects mostly quiet conditions on June 12, quiet on
June 13, active to disturbed on June 14, quiet to active June 15 and
16, quiet June 17 to 21, quiet to unsettled June 22 to 25 and quiet
to active June 26 and 27.  Then it is quiet on June 28 to 30, mostly
quiet July 1 and 2, quiet to unsettled July 3, active to disturbed
July 4, quiet to active July 5, and quiet to unsettled July 6 to 8.
He expects an increase in solar wind on June 14 and 15 and July 4
and 5.  For more information concerning radio propagation, see the
ARRL Technical Information Service web page.  A detailed explanation
of the numbers used in this bulletin is also available on this site.
An archive of past propagation bulletins is also available.  Monthly
propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations can be found on the W1AW web site.  Find more good
information and tutorials on propagation on the k9la web site.
Archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and
planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at
//bit.ly/1IBXtnG and //bit.ly/1KQGbRm .  Click on Download this file
to download the archive and ignore the security warning about the
file format.  The multiple websites mentioned in this bulletin can
be found in teleprinter, packet and Internet versions of 2015
Propagation Forecast Bulletin.  Sunspot numbers were 80, 105, 129,
136, 122, 110, and 105, with a mean of 112.4. 10.7 cm flux was 118,
126, 132.7, 137.3, 134.2, 136.5, and 131.4, with a mean of 131.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 3, 5, 7, 33, 13, and 12, with
a mean of 10.9. Estimated mid latitude A indices were 4, 4, 7, 8,
22, 12, and 11, with a mean of 9.7.

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