‰  NOW 18 WPM transition file follows‰

Solar activity increased somewhat over this weeks reporting period,
July 30 through August 5, compared to the previous seven days.
Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 47.9 to 70.3, while
average daily solar flux was up from 96.4 to 104.5.  Average daily
mid latitude and planetary A index remained about the same, both
around 10.  At 2348 UTC on August 5, Australias Space Weather
Services issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning.  A high speed
stream of solar wind from a coronal hole is expected to cause
unsettled to active conditions with possibility of magnetic storms
over high latitude regions on August 7, then settling down to stable
conditions by late August 8.  Earth is entering the debris field
from Comet Swift Tuttle, and the resulting Perseid meteor shower
should peak August 12 to 13.  This offers the possibility of VHF
meteor scatter communication on 6 and 2 meters, and possible
enhancement of the ionosphere for upper HF bands as well.  Predicted
solar flux for the near term is 115 on August 7, 120 on August 8 and
9, 115 on August 10 and 11, 110 on August 12 and 13, 90 on August 14
and 15, 95 on August 16 to 19, 90 on August 20 and 21, 95 on August
22 and 23, 100 on August 24 and 25, 105 on August 26 to 28 and 100
on August 29 through September 2.  Predicted planetary A index is
23, 15 and 24 on August 7 to 9, then 20, 12 and 8 on August 10 to
12, then 5 on August 13 to 17, then 12, 10, 8 and 12 on August 18 to
21, then 10, 5 and 8 on August 22 to 24, 5 on August 25 and 26, then
12, 18, 25, 12 and 10 on August 27 to 31, then 8, 5, 12, 18 and 8 on
September 1 to 5, and 5 on September 6 to 13.  OK1MGW predicts
geomagnetic activity will be active to disturbed August 7 and 8,
quiet to active August 9, quiet to unsettled August 10 and 11,
mostly quiet August 12 and 13, quiet on August 14 and 15, quiet to
unsettled August 16 and 17, quiet to active August 18, quiet to
unsettled August 19 to 22, mostly quiet August 23, quiet to
unsettled August 24, quiet to active August 25 and 26, active to
disturbed August 27, quiet August 28, quiet to unsettled August 29
and 30, mostly quiet August 31 and September 1, and quiet to active
September 2.  OK1MGW expects increases in solar wind on August 7 to
9 and 25 to 28.  Average daily sunspot numbers for July 2015 were
68.5.  This is down from 77.4 in June and 83 in May.  For our three
month moving averages, the peak for the current cycle was in 2014,
when the averages centered on February and March were 146.4 and
148.2.  The three month moving averages for the remainder of 2014
were all above 100.  The averages centered on January through June
2015 were 98.2, 78.1, 68.2, 72.4, 77.7, and 76.3.  So the last
figure, centered on June averages all the daily sunspot numbers from
May 1 through July 31.  My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45
day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in
downloadable spreadsheet format at //bit.ly/1VOqf9B and
//bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .  Sunspot numbers were 83, 71, 70, 51, 62, 68, and
87, with a mean of 70.3.  10.7 cm flux was 102, 100.7, 102.9, 101.5,
105.6, 106.8, and 112.2, with a mean of 104.5.  Estimated planetary
A indices were 12, 14, 10, 11, 6, 7, and 6, with a mean of 9.4.
Estimated mid latitude A indices were 12, 16, 9, 13, 9, 9, and 7,
with a mean of 10.7.

‰  END OF 18 WPM transition file ƒ