‰  NOW 18 WPM transition file follows‰

Trends over the past week were just the way we like them, with
average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increasing, and
geomagnetic indices lower, compared to the previous seven days.  Why
do we like these numbers? When solar flux and sunspot numbers are
higher, this increases the likelihood that there will be openings on
HF. Lower geomagnetic indices suggest lower absorption.  Average
daily sunspot numbers rose from 41 to 55.7, and average daily solar
flux increased from 98.2 to 106.5. Average daily planetary A index
declined from 16.6 to 11.1, while average daily mid latitude A index
went from 10.6 to 8.4.  These comparisons are for the January 7 to
13 period against the previous seven days.  Predicted solar flux is
105 on January 15, 110 on January 16 to 18, 105 on January 19 to 21,
100 on January 22, 105 on January 23 to 26, 110 on January 27 and
28, 105 on January 29 to 31, 110 on February 1 to 7, then 108, 105
and 100 on February 8 to 10, 105 on February 11 to 14, 100 on
February 15 to 18 and 105 on February 19 to 22.  Predicted planetary
A index is 5 on January 15 to 21, 15 on January 22, 10 on January
23, 5 on January 24 to 27, then 18, 12 and 8 on January 28 to 30, 5
on January 31 through February 1, then 15, 12 and 8 on February 2 to
4, 5 on February 5 and 6, then 6, 15, 12 and 8 on February 7 to 10,
6 on February 11 to 13, 5 on February 14 to 16, 8 on February 17 and
15 on February 18.  F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation
Interest Group predicts quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions on
January 15, quiet to active January 16, quiet to unsettled January
17, mostly quiet January 18, and the quiet to active January 19 and
20.  Next its mostly quiet January 21, quiet to active January 22,
mostly quiet January 23 and 24, quiet on January 25, quiet to
unsettled January 26, active to disturbed January 27, quiet to
active January 28, quiet on January 29 to 31, quiet to active on
February 1 and 2, quiet to unsettled February 3, quiet on February 4
and 5, mostly quiet February 6 and 7, active to disturbed February 8
and quiet to active February 9.  There are a couple of articles
about propagation in the February 2016 issue of QST. Check out Radio
Wave Propagation, How Waves Attenuate With Distance by Kai Siwiak,
KE4PT on page 37, and Make the Most of Ten Meters by Steve Ford,
WB8IMY on page 83.  Check it out at,
//www.voacap.com/prediction.html .  For more information concerning
radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web
page.  A detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin
is also available on this site.  An archive of past propagation
bulletins is also available.  My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily
45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in
downloadable spreadsheet format at //bit.ly/1VOqf9B and
//bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .  Sunspot numbers were 57, 80, 84, 73, 41, 29, and
26, with a mean of 55.7. 10.7 cm flux was 103.4, 108.5, 107, 108.9,
108, 105.5, and 104.1, with a mean of 106.5. Estimated planetary A
indices were 14, 8, 6, 7, 14, 15, and 14, with a mean of 11.1.
Estimated mid latitude A indices were 11, 6, 5, 7, 9, 10, and 11,
with a mean of 8.4.

‰  END OF 18 WPM transition file ƒ