‰  NOW 18 WPM transition file follows‰

The Earth is currently under the influence of a high speed solar
wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. On 3 March geomagnetic
activity is expected to reach active levels. Isolated minor storm
periods are also possible.  This reporting week, February 23 through
March 1, 2017, sunspot and solar flux averages rose while
geomagnetic indices remained about the same, compared to the
previous seven days. Average daily sunspot numbers increased from
19.1 to 34.1, and average daily solar flux went from 78.5 to 81.3.
Average planetary A index barely changed from 11.3 to 13.1, and
average mid latitude A index, measured in Virginia, went from 9 to
8.7. The numbers went in opposite directions, but were each barely
changed.  Predicted solar flux is 79 on March 3, 78 on March 4 and
5, 77 on March 6 and 7, 76 on March 8, 75 on March 9 to 14, then 74,
75, 77, 79, and 80 on March 15 to 19, 82 on March 20 to 23, 80 on
March 24 and 25, 79 on March 26, 77 on March 27 and 28, 79 on March
29 to 31, 75 on April 1, 72 on April 2 and 3, 73 and 74 on April 4
and 5, 75 on April 6 to 10, and 74, 75 and 77 on April 11 to 13.
Predicted planetary A index is 22, 14, 10 and 8 on March 3 to 6, 5
on March 7 and 8, 8 on March 9, 5 on March 10 to 14 then 10, 20, 15,
10 and 8 on March 15 to 19, then 5, 8, 10, 15, and 8 on March 20 to
24, 5 on March 25 and 26, then 12, 25, 20, 15 and 8 on March 27 to
31, 5 on April 1 to 10, and 10, 20, 15 and 10 on April 11 to 14.
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 3 to 28, 2017
Geomagnetic field will be, Quiet on March 8 and 9, 12, 14, 26 Mostly
quiet on March 10 and 11, 13, 15, 25 Quiet to unsettled March 7, 20
to 22, 24 Quiet to active on March 3 and 4, 6, 16, 18 and 19, 23, 27
Active to disturbed on March 5, 17, 28 Amplifications of the solar
wind from coronal holes are expected on March 3 to 5, 6 to 8, 20 to
22, and 23 to 26.  Weve been tracking a 3 month moving average of
sunspot numbers for several years now. The peak was centered on
February and March 2014, when the 3 month averages were 146.4 and
148.2. The average centered on the end of 2014 was 107.8, and a year
later was 55.4. At the end of last year the average was 21, and the
average centered on January 2017 was 20.6. The cycle will probably
reach minimum in 2020.  The G2 class geomagnetic storm may have
helped north/south paths.  The TX5T Austral Islands DXpedition was
loud on 28.027 MHz and in my log with one call at 2045z March 2.
This on my mobile station.  I saw aurora contacts spotted on 6
meters March 1 such as N8JX EN64 to K9MU EN44 at 2038z.  Good
conditions continued on 10 meters this week.  10 open to Pacific,
N4EK, March 2, 2118z.  Dr. Tamitha Skov issued this solar storm
forecast video on February 23, //bit.ly/2mNFO5g .  This weekend is
the ARRL International DX SSB Contest. See //www.arrl.org/ for
details.  The multiple websites mentioned in this bulletin can be
found in teleprinter, packet, and Internet versions of 2017
Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP009.  Sunspot numbers were 18, 27,
25, 35, 40, 39, and 55, with a mean of 34.1. 10.7 cm flux was 83.3,
82.1, 80, 79, 82.2, 81.6, and 80.8, with a mean of 81.3. Estimated
planetary A indices were 11, 20, 7, 2, 8, 8, and 36, with a mean of
13.1. Estimated mid latitude A indices were 8, 15, 6, 0, 6, 5, and
21, with a mean of 8.7.

‰  END OF 18 WPM transition file ƒ