‰  NOW 18 WPM transition file follows‰

At 2344 UTC on May 23, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a
geomagnetic disturbance warning for May 26 and 27.  On May 26 they
predict a minor to major storm warning and on May 27 a minor storm.
These are due to a partial halo coronal mass ejection.  Average
daily sunspot number for the reporting week, May 18 to 24, increased
from 3.4 to 31.7.  The previous week had five days of zero sunspots.
There were no zero sunspot days this week, so the average daily
sunspot number is much higher.  Over the same two weeks, average
daily solar flux rose from 70.5 to 74.1.  Average daily planetary A
index rose from 8.3 to 11 and average mid latitude A index rose from
9.4 to 11.7.  Predicted solar flux is 78 on May 26 to 28, 75 on May
29 to June 1, 72 on June 2 and 3, 70 on June 4 to 8, 72 on June 9 to
11, 74 on June 12 to 18, 76 on June 19 to 23, 74 on June 24 and 25,
Field Day weekend, 72 on June 26 to 30, then 70 on July 1 to 5 and
72 on July 6 to 8.  Predicted planetary A index is 12 on May 26, 20
on May 27, 10 and 8 on May 28 and 29, 5 on May 30 to June 9, 10 and
12 on June 10 and 11, 5 on June 12 and 13, then 8, 10 and 20 on June
14 to 16, 12 on June 17 and 18, 8 on June 19, 5 on June 20 to July 6
and 8 on July 7 and 8.  ARRL Field Day is only four weeks away.  We
get 45 day predictions for solar flux and planetary A index, and the
prediction for Field Day weekend, June 24 and 25, looks good.  On
June 23 to 25, including the previous Friday, predicted planetary A
index is 5, good, and solar flux is 76 on Friday and 74 on Saturday
and Sunday, not bad.  The 45 day forecast is updated daily, usually
after 2100 UTC at //ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/ .  Early
Thursday I was attempting to discern the polarity of sunspots at and
noticed that sunspot groups 12659 and 12660 showed opposite
polarity, one had black on the leading edge while the other had
black on the trailing edge.  Thinking that one of these may be from
solar cycle 24, while the other may be from cycle 25, I sent a
message to Carl, K9LA for a sanity check.  Geomagnetic field will
be, Quiet on June 10, Mostly quiet on May 31, June 11, Quiet to
unsettled May 26 and 27, 30, June 3, 6 to 8, 14, 19 Quiet to active
on May 28 and 29, June 4 and 5, 15, 20 Active to disturbed on June 1
and 2, 9, 12 and 13, 16 and 18 Amplifications of the solar wind from
coronal holes are expected on May 30, June 5 and 6, 12 to 14, 16 to
18 This weekend is the CW portion of the CQ World Wide WPX contest,
from 0000 UTC Saturday, May 27 to 2359 UTC Sunday, May 28.  You may
operate no more than 36 of the 48 hours.  Note 0000 UTC Saturday is
actually 500 PM Friday, here on the West Coast.  See
//www.cqwpx.com/rules.htm for rules.  Thanks to several readers,
including most recently, Russ Ward, W4NI, who tipped us about using
3D numerical models to predict eruptive solar events.  Sunspot
numbers were 24, 24, 22, 35, 55, 47, and 15, with a mean of 31.7.
10.7 cm flux was 72.2, 72.3, 72.4, 73.5, 74.4, 76, and 77.9, with a
mean of 74.1.  Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 11, 24, 9, 10,
8, and 4, with a mean of 11.  Estimated mid latitude A indices were
15, 13, 23, 10, 9, 8, and 4, with a mean of 11.7.

‰  END OF 18 WPM transition file ƒ