‰ NOW 18 WPM transition file follows‰ No sunspots were observed between March 2 and March 15. One sunspot made a brief appearance on March 2, after a blank sun on March 1. Average daily sunspot number dropped from 1.6 to zero this week, and average daily solar flux rose fractionally from 67.6 to 67.7. Well be watching the latest sunspot appearance to see if it is as fleeting as the March 2 sunspot. Geomagnetic indicators rose slightly, with planetary A index increasing from 5.1 to 7.1, and mid latitude A index rose from 4.6 to 5.7. Predicted solar flux is 69 on March 16 to 23, 72 on March 24 to 29, 70 on March 30, 68 on March 31 through April 11, 70 on April 12, 72 on April 13 to 25, 70 on April 26, and 68 on April 27 to 29. Predicted planetary A index is 15 on March 16 to 18, 10 on March 19, 5 on March 20 to 22, then 8, 5, 8 and 20 on March 23 to 26, 5 on March 27 to 29, 8 on March 30 and 31, 5 on April 1 to 9, then 8, 10, 14, 16 and 20 on April 10 to 14, 5 on April 15 and 16, then 12, 18, 10, 5, 8 and 20 on April 17 to 22, then 5 on April 23 to 25, 8 on April 26 and 27, and 5 on April 28 and 29. What Jon said is more the norm than the exception, as solar radiation is not the only factor that contributes to the amount of ionization at any given location. There are two other factors. One is geomagnetic field activity, the K index, which can modify the amount of ionization. The other is an event in the lower atmosphere that couples up to the ionosphere, which also can modify the amount of ionization and which is a very hot topic with researchers nowadays. The bottom line is if todays solar flux is higher than yesterdays, it does not necessarily mean that the ionosphere is better today, it could be worse. The result of all of this is that we have monthly median propagation predictions, they are statistical over a months time frame, not daily propagation predictions. How ironic is it that only one week after I talk about significant advances towards making Space Weather a household name, we get smacked in the face with a bogus story about a massive solar storm threatening to swallow the Earth? From what Ive heard, this story began innocently enough, someone misread an info graphic on a Russian space weather website. But then the mistake went viral. Over the past few days, reports spread around the globe, sending people into a panic. Ive watched major news agencies publish the story, only to print embarrassing retractions a day later. All of this simply because they ran with a story they did not have the expertise to fact check. I hate to admit it, but just as I thought we were doing so well, I am reminded of how far we have yet to go. This week our Sun is indeed sending us a solar storm, but its not all fire and brimstone. Its the weak, wispy kind we continue to expect as we approach solar minimum. The fact that the storm is weak actually brings us some good news. For amateur radio operators and emergency communicators already wrestling with poor radio propagation conditions on Earths day side, communications might improve on Earths night side, especially with auroral propagation. GPS users should also enjoy the quiet conditions, but be aware for glitches, especially after sunset and at higher latitudes where aurora is active. As for aurora sightings during this weak storm, reports are coming in from Norway, Sweden, and Finland as well as from Ontario, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan Canada. In the U.S.A. aurora has been sighted as far south as Michigan and Minnesota. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at //arrl.org/propagation. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at //arrl.org/bulletins. Sunspot numbers were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 66.6, 67.5, 67.7, 67.8, 68.1, 68.6, and 67.7, with a mean of 67.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 12, 12, 6, 3, 4, and 9, with a mean of 7.1. Estimated mid latitude A indices were 3, 10, 9, 7, 2, 3, and 6, with a mean of 5.7. ‰ END OF 18 WPM transition file ƒ