‰  NOW 18 WPM transition file follows‰

Australias Space Weather Services issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance
Warning at 0022 UTC on August 16, Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be at Quiet to Active levels due to coronal hole effects. A
period of significant southward Bz component could produce isolated
Minor Storm levels.  What is the Bz component? It is a component of
the interplanetary magnetic field, or IMF.  The pluto.space.swri.edu
site goes into greater detail.  A high speed solar wind stream is
expected to emerge from the coronal hole.  Solar activity is still
very weak. The previous propagation forecast bulletin, ARLP032,
reported two days with a sunspot number of 11, on each day, for
August 2 to 8, yielding the average daily sunspot number for the
week at 1.6. This weeks average was 3.4, based on a sunspot number
of 12 on both August 14 and 15. That activity continued on Thursday,
August 16, also with a daily sunspot number of 12.  Average solar
flux went in the other direction, changing to 68.7 from 69.7 in the
previous week. Geomagnetic indicators were higher, with average
daily planetary A index shifting from 5.7 to 6.9, and mid latitude A
index from 6.9 to 7.3.  Activity is weak and should get weaker, at
least until two years from now in 2020 when we will probably reach
the bottom of Solar Cycle 24.  Predicted solar flux, August 16
forecast from USAF via NOAA, is 69 on August 17 to 23, 70 on August
24 through September 5, 68 on September 6 to 18, and 70 on September
19 to 30.  Predicted planetary A index from the same forecast is 10
on August 17, 5 on August 18 to 20, 15 on August 21 and 22, 10 on
August 23, 5 on August 24 through September 2, then 12, 8, 5, 5, 10,
8 and 8 on September 3 to 9, then 5 on September 10 and 11, then 12,
15, 8, 5, 15 and 12 on September 12 to 17, 5 on September 18 to 28,
8 on September 29 and 12 on September 30.  Interesting article about
cosmic rays can be found at, //bit.ly/2KTiMcH .  This article was
written by Dr. Tony Phillips of Spaceweather.com.  Monthly
propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations can be found on the ARRL/Propagation web page.  Find
better information and tutorials on propagation on the K9LA web
site.  The multiple websites mentioned in this bulletin can be found
in teleprinter, packet, and Internet versions of 2018 Propagation
Forecast Bulletin ARLP033.  Sunspot numbers were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12,
and 12, with a mean of 3.4. 10.7 cm flux was 70.3, 69.5, 67.4, 68.1,
67.8, 68.7, and 68.8, with a mean of 68.7. Estimated planetary A
indices were 5, 4, 11, 5, 5, 4, and 14, with a mean of 6.9.
Estimated mid latitude A indices were 6, 4, 11, 6, 6, 6, and 12,
with a mean of 7.3.

‰  END OF 18 WPM transition file ƒ