‰  NOW 18 WPM transition file follows‰

Two new sunspot groups appeared this week, on two consecutive days,
each lasting for only a day, with a daily sunspot number of 11 and
13 on Friday and Saturday of last week, just in time for ARRL CW
Sweepstakes. Both sunspot groups had a magnetic polarity signature
indicating Solar Cycle 25, and appeared after 4 weeks of no
sunspots.  Spaceweather.com reported both appearances as region
AR2750, yet NOAA reported a new sunspot group on each day, shown as
a 1 in the New Regions column, as seen at,
//ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt .  Perhaps that is true, and
the new appearances on each day were both counted as part of AR2750.
Solar flux was higher over the past reporting week, Thursday through
Wednesday, October 31 through November 6, with average daily solar
flux rising from 68.5 to 70.4.  Average solar flux as reported in
this bulletin hasnt been as high since 2019 Propagation Forecast
Bulletin ARLP020, back in May, when it was 75.7.  Note there were
sunspots during that week also.  Geomagnetic indicators were low
this week, with average daily planetary A index declining from 16.4
to 4.1, and average mid latitude A index softening from 13 to 2.7.
Predicted solar flux is 70 on November 8, 68 on November 9 to 15, 67
on November 16 to 19, 68 and 70 on November 20 and 21, 71 on
November 22 to 30, 70 on December 1 to 6, 69 on December 7 to 19,
and 70 on December 20 to 22.  Predicted planetary A index is 5 on
November 8 and 9, then 10, 12 and 8 on November 10 to 12, 5 on
November 13 to 19, then 15, 25, 18, 12 and 10 on November 20 to 24,
8 on November 25 and 26, 5 on November 27 through December 16, then
15, 20, and 18, on December 17 to 19, 12 on December 20 and 21 and 5
on December 22.  At //ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/ NOAA
reported a solar flux forecast of 96 for December 16 to 18 in their
predictions on their November 1 to 5 forecasts, but when I asked
about this, they told me that the US Air Force had transposed digits
from 69 to 96.  By the November 6 forecast, this was all corrected.
Drat. I was hoping for those higher numbers. My contact at NOAA told
me he wished the flux would be 96, or even better, 196.  Even during
days with no sunspots, there was notable HF propagation recently,
with the Pitcairn Island expedition making HF contacts across the
Americas, even on 10 meters.  I thought you might like to know I
worked 15 new DXCC countries on 15m during the CQWW CW DX Contest,
Chile, India, South Africa, Afghanistan were some of the best I
worked.  I use a M0PLK delta loop at 11 meters above ground and 350w
from my old Yaesu FL2100z amp, rig is a Pro III.  For more
information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service web page.  A detailed explanation of numbers
used in this bulletin is also available on this site.  An archive of
past propagation bulletins is also available.  Monthly propagation
charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations can be
found on the ARRL/Propagation web page.  Find better information and
tutorials on propagation on the K9LA web site.  The multiple
websites mentioned in this bulletin can be found in teleprinter,
packet, and Internet versions of 2019 Propagation Forecast Bulletin
ARLP045.  Sunspot numbers for October 31 through November 6, 2019
were 0, 11, 13, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 3.4. 10.7 cm flux was
71.2, 70.7, 70.7, 69.4, 70.8, 70.4, and 69.3, with a mean of 70.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 2, 2, 4, 5, and 5, with a
mean of 4.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 2, 1, 1, 4, 2, and 4,
with a mean of 2.7.

‰  END OF 18 WPM transition file ƒ