‰  NOW 18 WPM transition file follows‰

New sunspot cycle 25 continues to make a strong showing.  Sunspots
appeared on every day for over three weeks, beginning on July 21.
Average daily sunspot numbers for the week slipped a bit from 19.6
to 14.3 this week, but average daily solar flux increased from 72.8
to 73.8.  Geomagnetic indicators remain quiet.  Both the average
daily planetary and mid latitude A index were 3.7.  Predicted solar
flux for the next month and a half is 72 on August 14 and 15, 70 on
August 16 to 21, 72 on August 22 to 27, 73 on August 28 and 29, 75
on August 30 to September 9, 73 on September 10 and 11, 72 on
September 12 to 23, 73 on September 24 and 25, and 75 on September
26 and 27.  This is a welcome change from recent forecasts which saw
predicted solar flux consistently below 70.  Predicted planetary A
index forecasts continued quiet geomagnetic conditions, at 5 on
August 14 to 23, 8 on August 24 and 25, 5 on August 26 to 28, then
8, 16 and 8 on August 29 to 31, 5 on September 1 to 19, 8 on
September 20 and 21, 5 on September 22 to 24, then 8, 16 and 8 on
September 25 to 27.  Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period
August 14 til September 9, 2020 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.
Geomagnetic field will be, Quiet on August 15 and 16, September 5 to
7, Quiet to unsettled on August 14, 17 to 19, 22, 23, 24 and 25, 26
to 29, September 2 to 4, 8 and 9, Quiet to active on August 20 and
21, 30 and 31, September 1, Unsettled to active is not expected.
Active to disturbed is not expected.  Solar wind will intensify on
August 22 and 23, 24 and 25, September 1 and 2, 4 to 6.  Parenthesis
means lower probability of activity enhancement.  K9LA recently
posted a survey of various solar cycle 25 predictions.  He also did
a presentation at the QSO Today Ham Expo on the same subject.  The
material from that event will be up for a limited time, so catch it
before it is gone on September 9.  And Carls Basic Concepts resource
is always good for a review.  Personally I like the prediction that
promises a repeat of the epic Cycle 19 of the late 1950s.  I was a
small child then, but my father had a low band FM 2 way radio
mounted in his company car, probably operating somewhere between 30
and 40 MHz judging from my hazy memory of the length of the bumper
mounted whip antenna.  So I think we are due for another big cycle,
although this is purely emotional, and I try to avoid the Gamblers
Fallacy.  That is the name of the logical fallacy in which when
observing a random series of events such as when spinning a roulette
wheel, if we keep seeing the ball land on red over and over, then we
are due for black to come up.  But with independent random events,
one result cannot predict the next.  More good information and
tutorials on propagation are at //k9la.us/.  Instructions for
starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
//arrl.org/bulletins.  Sunspot numbers were 14, 14, 11, 13, 12, 12,
and 24, with a mean of 14.3.  10.7 cm flux was 73.1, 74, 74.7, 73.9,
74.2, 73.5, and 73.1, with a mean of 73.8.  Estimated planetary A
indices were 5, 4, 5, 3, 3, 3, and 3, with a mean of 3.7.  Middle
latitude A index was 4, 5, 5, 3, 3, 3, and 3, with a mean of 3.7.

‰  END OF 18 WPM transition file ƒ