‰  NOW 18 WPM transition file follows‰

What happened? Solar Cycle 25 seemed well underway, but no new
sunspots emerged since last year prior to Christmas, on December 23,
2020 to be exact. The last time any sunspot was visible was on
January 2. On January 14, Spaceweather.com posted, Welcome back,
solar minimum.  Average daily solar flux declined from 78.6 to 73.8.
Geomagnetic A index remained quiet.  Predicted solar flux for the
next 30 days is 74, 74 and 75 on January 15 to 17, 80 on January 18
to 21, then 78 on January 22 to 27, 77 on January 28 to 31, 75 on
February 1 to 6, and 74 on February 7 to 13. Flux is expected to
peak at 78 again after February 14.  Predicted planetary A index is
5 on January 15 and 16, then 10, 12, 10 and 8 on January 17 to 20, 5
on January 21 to 24, 8 on January 25 and 26, 5 on January 27 to 31,
10 on February 1 and 2, 5 on February 3 to 12 and 10 on February 13.
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 15 to February
10, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.  The predictability of changes is
lower again, as there are ambiguous and changing indications.
Peering at STEREO spacecraft images online via
//stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ , I see a bright spot due to cross a few
days from now, so perhaps that indicates a new sunspot over the
solar horizon. But I have been fooled by bright spots on STEREO in
the past which did not emerge as sunspots.  Jon Jones, N0JK reports
E skip on 6 meters.  He writes, Sporadic E on 50 MHz dropped off
after the first week of January.  There was a sporadic E opening I
found January 10 with K8TB in EN72 in on FT8 at 1937 UTC.  On
January 14 a rare and unusual opening on 6 meters occurred between
New England, VE1 and Europe. DK8NW and DK1MAX were spotted at 1415
UTC by WW1L in FN54. HA2NP was spotted by VE1P UTC in FN85 at 1436
UTC.  VE1PZ was spotted by OH6MW at 1430 UTC calling CQ on 50.313
MHz FT8.  Propagation mode unclear but probably multi hop sporadic
E. Solar flux only 73, unlikely to be F2.  A few days ago Dr.
Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, posted a video.  It can be found on
//youtu.be/ .  K9LA gave an excellent presentation on propagation
for the Madison DX Club on Tuesday, and the video will appear
shortly on //www.madisondxclub.org/ .  Until then, you can also
watch a November presentation on Solar Cycle 25 by Dr. Douglas
Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center via that same
link.  More speculation about Solar Cycle 25 can be found online at,
//www.universetoday.com/ .  For more information concerning radio
propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page.  A
detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin is also
available on this website.  An archive of past propagation bulletins
is also available.  Find better information and tutorials on
propagation on the k9la.us website.  Sunspot numbers for January 7
through 13, 2021 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0.
10.7 cm flux was 74.6, 75.2, 74.2, 73.1, 73.2, 72.8, and 73.2, with
a mean of 73.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 2, 3, 3, 14,
9, and 4, with a mean of 5.9. Middle latitude A index was 4, 1, 2,
3, 10, 8, and 3, with a mean of 4.4.

‰  END OF 18 WPM transition file ƒ