‰  NOW 18 WPM transition file follows ‰

Three new sunspot groups appeared this week, on February 3, 6 and 8.
Average daily sunspot number rose slightly from 81.3 last week to
83.9 in this reporting week, February 3 to 9.  Average daily solar
flux increased from 123.1 to 126, also a modest change.  Solar
flares and geomagnetic storms through the week raised the average
daily planetary A index from 10.1 to 14.4, and the middle latitude A
index, measured at one location in Virginia, went from 6.4 to 9.6.
At 0523 UTC on February 11 the Australian Space Forecast Centre
issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning, A recurrent coronal hole
is expected to cause unsettled to active conditions with possible
minor storm periods on 12 to 13 February.  A geomagnetic storm on
February 4 brought down 40 of the low earth orbit Starlink
satellites, even though the storm was not especially robust. But
from February 3 and 4, the high latitude college A index measured
near Fairbanks, Alaska was 48 and 61, respectively, a level that
assures the appearance of aurora borealis.  Normally we think of geo
storms as a negative event regarding HF propagation, but not always,
as sometimes there is propagation via bouncing signals off the
aurora.  K7SS commented at 2030 UTC on February 10 in an email
posting titled, EU aurora on 10 meter CW.  Weak OH, SM, UA, opening
now. All aurora sounding. Point em North boys.  All aurora sounding
refers to the unusual garbled fluttery sounds of auroral
propagation, and then advice to point your antenna north to
propagate signals via the aurora.  W7YED responded, Yeah, I saw 2
SM3s at around 2100 UTC calling CQ on 10m FT8. One worked an XE,
lasted about 5 minutes then went away. And now back to the regularly
scheduled Caribbean and SA stations. Things are looking up on 10.
So far in the year 2022 sunspots were visible on every day. Last
year 64 days had no sunspots, and in 2020, 208 days were spotless,
according to spaceweather.com.  Predicted solar flux values for the
near term are 118 and 116 on February 11 and 12, 112 on February 13
and 14, 110 on February 15 and 16, 112 on February 17, 115 on
February 18 and 19, 118 on February 20, 120 on February 21 to 23,
125 on February 24 and 25, 120 on February 26 through March 4, then
115 and 122 on March 5 and 6, 120 on March 7 to 9, 110 on March 10
and 11, 115 on March 12 to 18, 118 on March 19, and 120 on March 20
to 22.  Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 22 and 25 on February
11 to 14, then 20, 12, 8, 10 and 8 on February 15 to 19, then 5, 10,
8, 5, 8 and 12 on February 20 to 25, then 8 on February 26 and 27, 5
on February 28 to March 2, then 12, 10, 15 and 10 on March 3 to 6, 5
on March 7 to 11, then 25 and 20 on March 12 and 13, 5 on March 14
and 15, then 10, 12 and 8 on March 16 to 18.  I would like to return
once again to the solar flare M1 in AR2936 on January 29,
accompanied by a long running event, see //www.swpc.noaa.gov/ ,
which caused the halo CME. The CME was met near Earth by 49 Starlink
satellites launched into low Earth orbit from the Kennedy Space
Center in Florida on Feb. 3.  Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has a great
update, all at 93 minutes.  It can be seen at, //youtu.be/ .  Some
images of recent sunspot regions can be found at,
//www.hkastroforum.net/ .  A study offers explanation for unusual
motions in solar flares, oddly referred to as Solar Flames.  The
study can be found on, //bit.ly/ .

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