= NOW 18 WPM transition file follows =

Lots of solar activity livened up HF conditions over the past
reporting week, March 31 to April 6. Average daily sunspot number
rose from 90.1 to 94.6, and daily solar flux from 132.7 to 135.3.
It looks like solar flux may peak this month at 140 on April 24 to
28.  Since March 18 we were unable to get daily solar flux from the
observatory in Penticton, British Columbia, so for a couple of weeks
we relied on secondary sources which were all in whole numbers,
instead of resolving to 0.1. Multiple inquiries to the observatory
led nowhere, but now the data is back online.  I had to fudge the
flux value for March 31, because the value of 239.5 was obviously an
error, probably due to a CME overwhelming the 10.7 cm receiver at
the observatory, so I averaged the morning and afternoon readings to
149.3. The official daily flux value is always from the 2000 UTC
local noon reading.  Geomagnetic conditions were quite active on
March 31 through April 2. Average daily planetary A index for the
week increased from 10 to 14.4, and middle latitude A index from 8.1
to 10.9.  Spaceweather.com reported 146 solar flares over the month
of March and predicts even more for April. They also report that
Solar Cycle 25 is progressing faster and stronger than earlier
predictions.  A new sunspot group appeared on March 31, two more on
April 1, another on April 2 and one more on April 3, and one more on
April 5.  Predicted solar flux is 108 on April 8 and 9, 105 on April
10 and 11, 100 on April 12 to 14, then 110, 115 and 120 on April 15
to 17, 125 on April 18 and 19, 130 on April 20 to 23, 140 on April
24 to 28, 135 on April 29 and 30, 130 on May 1, 120 on May 2 and 3,
125 on May 4 and 5, 120 on May 6, 115 on May 7 and 8, 110 on May 8
and 9, 115 on May 11, and 120 on May 12 to 14.  Predicted planetary
A index is 12, 15, 10 and 8 on April 8 to 11, 5 on April 12 to 19,
10 on April 20 and 21, then 5, 15, 10 and 8 on April 22 to 25, 5 on
April 26 to 28, then 18, 12, 10 and 8 on April 29 through May 2, 5
on May 3 to 7, then 12 and 10 on May 8 and 9, and 5 on May 10 to 16.
Total solar activity has been declining. Recent CMEs generated by
solar flares have usually not been headed to Earth. In particular,
on April 6, the solar wind was expected to intensify from a CME
generated by a filament eruption on April 3rd, but only a small
portion of the solar plasma cloud reached Earth.  The Earths
magnetic field was unsettled to active until April 2 and partly on
April 4 and 7. The increased geomagnetic activity on the night of
April 3 to 4 worsened diurnal short wave propagation conditions on
April 4. Thereafter, despite the continuing decline in solar
activity, shortwave propagation conditions improved.  In further
development, we first expect a decline in solar activity.  Its
growth in the second half of the month will again cause an
improvement of shortwave propagation. However, the development will
be slightly irregular.  Another great video forecast from Dr.
Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman, can be found on
//youtu.be/ .  Sunspot numbers were 84, 109, 118, 129, 86, 75, and
61, with a mean of 94.6. 10.7 cm flux was 149,3, 146.6, 143.3,
140.2, 128, 122.4, and 117, with a mean of 135.3. Estimated
planetary A indices were 27, 17, 22, 10, 11, 6, and 8, with a mean
of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 12, 19, 7, 8, 6, and 6,
with a mean of 10.9.

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