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Spaceweather.com reported on May 4 at 0859 UTC that an M5 solar
flare erupted from sunspot group AR3004, causing a shortwave radio
blackout over the Middle East and Africa.  A report of a recent
flare update can be found on //bit.ly/ .  Solar activity was lower
this week, even though we could see sunspots every day.  Average
daily sunspot numbers dropped from 109.3 to 68.6, while average
daily solar flux went from 156 to 120.  Average daily geomagnetic
indices were only slightly higher, with average planetary A index
changing from 9.1 to 10.7, and middle latitude A index from 8 to
9.3.  Predicted solar flux looks low for the next month, even
dipping below 100 in early June. In fact, from Wednesday to Thursday
the predicted solar flux for the first week of the forecast dropped
dramatically.  For a comparison, see this weeks ARRL Letter at
//www.arrl.org/ .  Predicted values are 118 on May 6 to 8, then 115,
110 and 112 on May 9 to 11, then 115, 115 and 120 on May 12 to 14,
125 on May 15 to 18, 127 on May 19 and 20, then 130, 128, 125, and
122 on May 21 to 24, 118 on May 25 and 26, then 114 and 110 on May
27 and 28, 105 on May 29 to 31, then 102 and 100 on June 1 and 2, 97
on June 3 to 5, then 99, 102 and 108 on June 6 to 8, then 115 on
June 9, 120 on June 10, and 125 on June 11 to 14.  Predicted
planetary A index is 5 on May 6, 8 on May 7 and 8, 5 on May 9 to 12,
then 8, 10 and 8 on May 13 to 15, 5 on May 16 to 19, then 12 and 8
on May 20 and 21, 5 on May 22 and 23, 18 on May 24, 15 on May 25 to
27, then 8, 15 and 8 on May 28 to 30, then 5 on May 31 through June
8, then 8, 1, and 8 on June 9 to 11.  The aforementioned predictions
are from forecasters Housseal and Dethlefsen of the USAF 557th
Weather Wing.  Recent flare activity in the news can be found on
various //bit.ly/ links.  For more information concerning radio
propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page.  A
detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin is also
available on this site.  An archive of past propagation bulletins is
also available.  Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions
and twelve overseas locations can be found on the ARRL/Propagation
web page.  Find more information and tutorials on propagation on the
K9LA web site.  The multiple websites mentioned in this bulletin can
be found in teleprinter, packet, and Internet versions of 2022
Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP018.  Sunspot numbers were 118,
90, 50, 36, 69, 53, and 64, with a mean of 68.6. 10.7 cm flux was
132.2, 123.5, 119.7, 109, 111.9, 113.8, and 130.1, with a mean of
120.  Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 15, 18, 9, 6, 7, and 6,
with a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 11, 10, 16, 9, 6,
7, and 6, with a mean of 9.3.

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