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Solar activity was up, up, up this week, with average daily sunspot
numbers increasing from 74.4 to 134.1, and average daily solar flux
from 120.3 to 157.3.  To get some perspective, I averaged the weekly
averages for sunspot number and solar flux from this bulletin and
the previous three, then compared them to the bulletins from one
year earlier.  A year ago, the averages for 2021 Propagation
Forecast Bulletins ARLP017 through ARLP020 were 28.9 for sunspot
numbers and 75.9 for solar flux.  A year later, the averages are
96.6 for sunspot numbers and 138.4 for solar flux.  This documents a
substantial increase in solar activity and is another illustration
of how this cycle is progressing faster than the official cycle
prediction by the experts.  Geomagnetic indicators were higher this
week. Average daily planetary A index went from 5 to 9, while middle
latitude A index increased from 4.6 to 9.6, compared to the previous
reporting period, which always runs from Thursday through the
following Wednesday.  Spaceweather.com reported on Wednesday that
big sunspot AR3014 doubled in size, and presented a movie from NASA,
showing 24 hours of activity.  It can be found at, //bit.ly/ .  On
Thursday, Spaceweather.com presented a movie of a massive jet of
plasma projecting from our Suns southwestern limb.  It can be found
at, //bit.ly/ .  Predicted solar flux in Thursdays prediction begins
about 8 points lower than the Wednesday forecast, at 172 on May 20,
170 on May 21 to 24, then a decline from 168, 166, 150, 136, and 138
on May 25 to 29, then the predicted values revert back to the
Wednesday forecast at 140 on May 30 and 31, 143 on June 1 to 3, 140
and 136 on June 4 and 5, 138 on June 6 and 7, then 140 and 150 on
June 8 and 9, 154 on June 10 to 12, 152 on June 13 and 14, then 150
and 148 on June 15 and 16, 140 on June 17 and 18, 145 on June 19,
142 on June 20 and 21, then 138 on June 22 and 136 on June 23 and
24.  Predicted planetary A index is 12 on May 20, 8 on May 21 and
22, 5 on May 23 to 26, 15 and 8 on May 27 and 28, 5 on May 29
through June 9, 8 on June 10, 14 on June 11 and 12, 8 and 5 on June
13 and 14, 8 on June 15 and 16, 5 on June 17 to 19, 18 on June 20,
then 15 on June 21 to 23, 8 on June 24, and 5 for at least the
following ten days.  The above predictions are from Housseal and
Levine of the 557th USAF Weather wing.  The Sun busts out a trio of
flares. You can see them at, //bit.ly/ .  Moderate flares have been
observed almost daily. Highest level X rays belonged to an X1.5
class eruption, start 1350 UTC, peak 1355 UTC, end time 1359 UTC on
May 10th from NOAA AR 3006 in the southwest quadrant, classified as
magnetic type beta gamma delta.  During the daytime, moderate flares
often caused a Short Wave Fadeout. AR 3007 and AR 3014 also evolved
into the beta gamma delta magnetic configuration.  No fibrous
eruption was observed in any of the fibers on the solar disc.
Observed coronal holes were relatively small, for this reason too,
the geomagnetic activity was mostly low. The expected arrival of a
CME, related to the flares of classes X1.5 and C4.7 on 10 May did
not arrive on Earth.  The multiple websites mentioned in this
bulletin can be found in teleprinter, packet, and Internet versions
of 2022 Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP020.  Sunspot numbers were
112, 120, 105, 129, 173, 153, and 147, with a mean of 134.1. 10.7 cm
flux was 133, 149.5, 152.7, 153.6, 161.7, 170.8, and 179.9, with a
mean of 157.3.  Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 7, 7, 12, 10,
12, and 7, with a mean of 9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 7, 9,
10, 11, 15, and 7, with a mean of 9.6.

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