= NOW 18 WPM transition file follows = Solar wind caused geomagnetic numbers to rise, with average planetary A index going from 7.7 to 14.4, and middle latitude numbers from 8.6 to 12.1. An improved outlook shows solar flux over the next month peaking at 116 on September 2 to 4. The forecast from USAF/NOAA on Thursday evening was improved from Wednesday. A look at ARLP032 from 2021 gives a perspective on solar cycle progress. A year ago, average sunspot number was 6 and average solar flux was just 74.8. Quite a difference from 65.4 and 111.9 during the past week. Predicted flux values are 115 on August 12 to 14, 110 on August 15 to 18, 108 on August 19, 104 on August 20 and 21, then 98, 100, 102, 100, 102, and 100 on August 22 to 27, then 102 on August 28 to 30, then 108 and 114 on August 31 and September 1, 116 on September 2 to 4, 112 on September 5 to 7. 110 on September 8 and 9, then 108 on September 10 to 12, 106 on September 13, then 104 on September 14 to 16, 102 on September 17 and 98 on September 18. Predicted planetary A index is 12 on August 12, 5 on August 13 to 16 then 10, 12 and 15 on August 17 to 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on August 22 to 26, 12 on August 27, 8 on August 28 to 30, 5 on August 31 through September 2, then 14, 18, 14, 10 and 8 on September 3 to 7, and 5 on September 8 to 12, then 22 on September 13, 15 on September 14 and 15, 8 on September 16, and 5 on September 17 to 22. A geomagnetic disturbance rarely comes completely unexpectedly. And even more so in a situation where its source cannot be located, or selected from several locations. Moreover, lasting five days. All this happened between August 7 and 11. At higher latitudes, the STEVE phenomenon was sighted on August 7, Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement. STEVE is a recent discovery. It looks like an aurora, but its not. See //en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STEVE It all started with a positive phase of disturbance in the ionosphere, when shortwave propagation improved. The development continued with a deterioration of propagation in the negative phase on August 8, followed by generally below average conditions in the following days. With a strong influence of sporadic layer E, whose activity usually increases as the Perseids meteor shower approaches maximum, expected on 12 and 13 August. They are also called the Tears of St. Lawrence. For more information on an expected increase in activity, The Sun Now web page from NASA SDO, another cycle prediction method and the latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, follow the URLs in packet and internet versions of Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP032. For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see //www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at //k9la.us/. Sunspot numbers were 52, 69, 69, 87, 63, 58, and 60, with a mean of 65.4. 10.7 cm flux was 108.8, 112.2, 116.3, 116.1, 113, 109.4, and 107.6, with a mean of 111.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 6, 4, 24, 31, 19, and 11, with a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 7, 7, 5, 20, 21, 15, and 10, with a mean of 12.1. = END OF 18 WPM transition file <