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Heightened sunspot activity over the past week no doubt produced the
great conditions during last weekends ARRL 10 Meter contest.
Compared to the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers
jumped from 85 to 136.9, while solar flux averages increased from
137.5 to 150.  Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with planetary A
index decreasing from 14.4 to 7.7, and middle latitude A index from
9.1 to 6.  Higher sunspot numbers and lower geomagnetic indicators
is an ideal combination for favorable HF propagation.  New sunspots
appeared every day except December 12, with one new sunspot on
December 8, another on December 9, and three more on December 10,
another on December 13 and one more on December 14.  The latest
prediction from the USAF via NOAA shows solar flux at 164, 162, 160,
158, 154, 152 and 150 on December 16 to 22, then 120 on December 23
to 28, then 125, 130 and 135 on December 29 to 31, 145 on January 1
to 8, 2023, then 140, 130, 125 and 120 on January 9 to 12, and 115
on January 13 to 18, then 120 on January 19 to 24.  Predicted
planetary A index is 5 on December 16 and 17, 10 on December 18, 8
on December 19 and 20, then 12, 8, and 15 on December 21 to 23, 20
on December 24 to 28, then 12, 10, 12, 8, 5 and 18 on December 29
through January 3, 2023, 10 on January 4 and 5, 8 on January 6, 5 on
January 7 to 14, 10 on January 15 and 16, then 5, 20, 15 and 12 on
January 17 to 20, and 20 on January 21 to 24.  Evolving solar
activity was erratic over the last seven days, starting with the
Earth entering a high speed solar wind stream, up to 600 km/s, on 8
December.  It came from a canyon shaped coronal hole that approached
the western limb of the solar disk. The day after, a magnetic
filament erupted in the Suns southern hemisphere, but the CME was
weak.  We expected a slight increase in solar wind speed around
December 12. However, not only did this not occur, but the solar
wind slowed to 350 km/s in the following days. At the same time, the
Earths magnetic field calmed down.  On 12 December, nine groups of
sunspots were observed on the Sun, the largest number so far in the
25th Solar Cycle. Two days later there were eleven sunspot groups.
Of these, two regions, AR 3163 and 3165, both with the Beta Gamma
magnetic configuration, had moderately strong flares, the strongest
on 14 December at 1442 UT was M6 class, produced the Dellinger
effect up to a frequency of 15 MHz. The ejected CMEs have missed the
Earth for now, and we can expect a possible hit from AR3163. The
increase in solar radiation caused an increase in MUF and therefore
the shortest shortwave bands opened up regularly.  Decrease in solar
activity, increasing geomagnetic activity and worsening of short
wave disturbances can be expected after December 20.  Sunspot
numbers were 115, 116, 111, 141, 142, 159, and 174, with a mean of
136.9. 10.7 cm flux was 143, 149.1, 141.7, 147,7, 150.8, 153, and
164.7, with a mean of 150.  Estimated planetary A indices were 11,
11, 8, 10, 6, 4, and 4, with a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index
was 9, 9, 6, 7, 5, 3, and 3, with a mean of 6.  Betsey Doane, K1EIC,
has been appointed by ARRL Headquarters as the Connecticut Section
Manager, as of November 23, 2022, to fulfill the role on a limited
basis, while the search continues for a full time Section Manager.
Doane, of Shelton, was previously the Connecticut Section Manager
for 25 years, from 1991 to 2016.

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