= NOW 18 WPM transition file follows =

From the first week of this year, we saw a dramatic and welcome
increase in solar activity, but it softened in this reporting week,
January 19 to 25.  Average daily sunspot numbers starting with the
final reporting week for 2022 were 96.1, 97, 135.9. 173.4 and 162.
Over the same period, average daily solar flux was 143.8, 157.8,
181.2, 221.8 and 198.9.  The northern hemisphere Winter Solstice was
over a month ago, and through the next two months we will see a
gradual transition toward Spring conditions.  Predicted solar flux
over the next month shows values peaking near 205 on February 14 and
15, but flux values in the next few days are lower than those posted
in Thursdays ARRL Letter.  Predicted numbers are 150 on January 27
and 28, 145 on January 29 and 30, 140 on January 31 through February
1, then 145, 150 and a big jump to 185 on February 2 to 4, 190 on
February 5 and 6, 195 on February 7 to 12, 200 on February 13, 205
on February 14 and 15, 200 on February 16 to 18, then 195, 200, and
190 on February 19 to 21, 185 on February 22 and 23, 180 on February
24 and 25, then 175 on February 26 through March 1, then 180, 185
and 190 on March 2 to 4.  Flux values are expected to keep rising,
peaking above 200 again after March 10.  Predicted planetary A
index, an indicator of geomagnetic instability is 8 on January 27
and 28, 5 on January 29 through February 1, 12 and 8 on February 2
and 3, 5 on February 4 to 6, 12 on February 7 and 8, then 15, 12 and
5 on February 9 to 11, 8 on February 12 and 13, 5 on February 14 to
17, then 8, 10, 10, 12 and 10 on February 18 to 22, 8 on February 23
to 25, then 5 on February 26 and 27, then 15, 10 and 8 on February
28 through March 2, and 5 on March 3 to 5, then 15 on March 6 to 8.
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earths
Ionosphere, January 26, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.  We had a week
of increased solar activity with areas of sunspots visible to the
naked eye. These were AR3190 and AR3192. The ejected CMEs produced
auroras at higher latitudes. Since the geomagnetic disturbances were
mostly short lived, they did not cause a noticeable deterioration in
shortwave propagation.  A CME hit the Earth on 17 January at around
2200 UTC. At the same time, it also hit the tail of comet ZTF, named
C/2022 E3, and broke it. A piece of the tail of comet ZTF was
chipped off and then carried away by the solar wind.  In recent
days, AR3190 was the largest and most active, but even it produced
no more than moderately powerful flares. Both large regions, AR3190
in the southwest and AR3192 in the northwest, are beyond the edge of
the solar disk by January 26. This is associated with a significant
drop in solar activity. While we know of other active regions beyond
the eastern limb of the solar disk, these are not large enough to
expect a repeat of the January pattern in February. But we expect a
similarly erratic pattern contributing to limited forecasting
capabilities.  KA3JAW is still having fun with 10 meter FM on 29.6
MHz.  On January 26 from 1430 to 1450 UTC he worked SV6EXH. With
QSB, signals were 3x3 to 5x5. Earlier on January 21 at 1646 UTC he
worked DM5TS, signals 4x5 with QSB.  Jon Jones, N0JK reported,
Sunday morning, January 22, 2023, of the ARRL January VHF Contest
had some great propagation on the 6 Meter band. I operated portable
signing W1AW/0 for VOTA. I was surprised when I turned on the radio
after setting up and the FT8 band map screen was full of strong
traces at 1505 UTC.  There was a surprise sporadic E opening Sunday
morning to W1, W2, W3, VE3, and W8. The Ontario stations were
booming in and I had a pileup calling. Even some F2 with PJ4MM in
FK52 peaking at minus 8 dB at 1554 UTC.  Later that evening an
Es/TEP opening from the northeast states to South America.  Space
Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has a new video. It can be
found at, //youtu.be/ .  This weekend is the CQ World Wide 160 Meter
CW contest.  Check //www.cq160.com for details.  Sunspot numbers
January 19 through 25, 2023 were 166, 197, 194, 166, 144, 127, and
140, with a mean of 162. 10.7 cm flux was 226.1, 217.5, 208.7,
198.6, 189.1, 180.2, and 171.8, with a mean of 198.9.  Estimated
planetary A indices were 7, 6, 17, 9, 7, 4, and 7, with a mean of
8.1. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 11, 7, 5, 3, and 5, with a
mean of 5.9.

= END OF 18 WPM transition file <