= NOW 18 WPM transition file follows =

A period of rising solar activity returned this week.  Ten new
sunspot groups appeared this reporting week, February 2 to 8, two on
February 3, one each on February 4 and 5, four more on February 6,
and two more on February 8.  On February 9, three more sunspot
groups emerged.  Early on February 9 Spaceweather.com reported a
large emerging sunspot over our Suns southeast horizon.  Average
daily sunspot number this week rose from 80.7 to 95.1, and average
daily solar flux from 139.5 to 155.9.  On Thursday, February 9 both
the sunspot number and solar flux were above the average for the
previous seven days. Sunspot number at 150 compared to the average
95.1 and solar flux at 214.9 compared to the average of 155.9. Both
indicate an upward trend.  Geomagnetic indicators rose, planetary A
index from 7.9 to 11.7, middle latitude numbers from 5.9 to 7.6.
The rise in geomagnetic activity was related to solar wind late in
the reporting week.  The solar flux prediction on Wednesday was 192
for February 9, the actual noon solar flux was 214.9, then 195 on
February 10 to 13. As you can see below, the Thursday prediction is
more optimistic for the next few days.  Predicted solar flux is 214
on February 10, 212 on February 11 to 13, then 208, 205 and 202 on
February 14 to 16, 150 on February 17 and 18, then 145, 140, 135,
130 and 135 on February 19 to 23, 130 on February 24 to 26, 125 on
February 27, 130 on February 28 through March 3, then 135, 150 and
160 on March 4 to 6, 155 on March 7 and 8, 160 on March 9, and 155
on March 10 to 12, then 150 on March 13 to 17.  Predicted planetary
A index is 12 and 8  on February 10 and 11, then 5 on February 12 to
17, 8 on February 18 and 19, 5 on February 20 and 21, 10 on February
22 to 24, then 5, 5 and 8 on February 25 to 27, and 5, 5, and 8 on
February 28 through March 2, then 5, 5, and 10 on March 3 to 5, then
15, 15, 12 and 8 on March 6 to 9, then 5 on March 10 to 16, 8 on
March 17 and 18, 5 on March 19 and 20 and 10 on March 21 to 23.
F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote, Check out WA4TTK and his Solar Data
Plotting Utility.  He wrote it several decades ago back in the days
of MSDOS, and the Windows version still works today. It displays
sunspot numbers and solar flux all the way back to January 1, 1989.
It can be found on //www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp .  Click the
Download SOL313W.ZIP file to install the program, then download the
updated GRAPH.dat file for the latest data. It is updated to last
week, so you can try out the data insertion on this bulletin.  Tech
Times and Weather.com articles on a Radio Blackout, rising solar
activity as some sort of existential threat, and an article about
something occurring on our Sun can be found on //bit.ly/ .  For more
information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service web page.  A detailed explanation of the numbers
used in this bulletin is also available on this site.  An archive of
past propagation bulletins is also available.  Sunspot numbers were
56, 74, 66, 79, 139, 110, and 142, with a mean of 95.1. 10.7 cm flux
was 134.9, 134.5, 139, 144, 156.7, 184.7, and 197.6, with a mean of
155.9.  Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 9, 6, 5, 18, 20, and
18, with a mean of 11.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 6, 5, 3, 13,
12, and 12, with a mean of 7.6.

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