‰ Now 18 WPM transition file follows ‰

The IMF, or Interplanetary Magnetic Field, dipped south early
Thursday UTC, Wednesday night, November 29 in North America, letting
in a blast of solar wind. The planetary K index throughout Thursday
UTC, which is 4 PM Wednesday to 4 PM Thursday here on North Americas
West Coast, was 2, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 2 and 1, and the resulting
planetary A index was 28. This week saw more geomagnetic activity
overall than the last reporting week, it runs Thursday through
Wednesday, with the average daily planetary A index rising 8R7
points to 12R3. Average daily sunspot numbers declined more than 11
points this week over last. The daily sunspot number was 0 on three
days recently, November 22 to 24. Since that time the number has
been rising, 12, 12, 30, 34, 33 and 59, from November 25 to 30.
There are two prominent and growing sunspots in view, 927 and 926,
and a holographic image from November 26 shows a mid sized sunspot
on our Suns far side. Not bad for a low point in solar cycle 23.
Current predictions show the sunspot minimum to be 3 to 4 months
from now, although by then I would expect to see more spotless days,
up to several weeks in a row at least. The predicted minimum is
based on predicted monthly smoothed sunspot numbers, so we will see
quite a bit of variation, since daily reality is not smoothed. To
determine a true smoothed sunspot number for any month, you need 13
months of daily readings, so currently we could only know an actual
smoothed sunspot number as recently as May 2006. The average daily
solar flux for the past week was 80R6, and the latest prediction
shows that number rising to 85 for December 1 to 5, 90 for December
6 and 7, and 95 during December 8 to 13. Sunspot numbers should rise
also. Over this weekend the planetary A index is expected to quiet
down, with a value of 15 for December 1, and 5 for December 2 to 5.
The next period of geomagnetic disturbance is expected around
December 7, with a planetary A index of 25. This is just prior to
the ARRL 10 Meter Contest, December 9 and 10. Geophysical Institute
Prague predicts quiet to unsettled conditions December 1, quiet
conditions December 2 to 5, unsettled December 6, and active
geomagnetic conditions on December 7. The average daily sunspot
numbers for the months November 2005 through November 2006 were
32R2, 62R6, 26R7, 5R3, 21R3, 55R2, 39R6, 24R4, 22R6, 22R8, 25R2,
14R7 and 31R5. Average daily solar flux for the same months was
86R3, 90R8, 83R4, 76R5, 75R5, 88R9, 80R9, 76R5, 75R8, 79, 77R8, 74R3
and 86R3. Sunspot numbers were 0, 0, 12, 12, 30, 34 and 33 with a
mean of 17R3. 10R7 cm flux was 76R8, 77R4, 78R6, 78R2, 82R4, 85R5,
and 85, with a mean of 80R6. Estimated planetary A indices were 18,
21, 15, 15, 6, 5 and 6 with a mean of 12R3. Estimated mid latitude A
indices were 8, 10, 10, 9, 7, 4 and 6, with a mean of 7R7‚

‰ End of 18 WPM transition file ‰