‰ Now 18 WPM transition file follows ‰

Recent sunspot activity is increasing, and the numbers bear this
out.  The average daily sunspot number for 2009 was 5.  The average
for 2008 was 4R7.  Not much difference in those numbers, but those
are for calendar years, and the trend toward the end of 2009 was
increasing sunspot activity.  Average daily sunspot numbers for 1999
to 2009 were 136R3, 173, 170R3, 176R6, 109R2, 68R6, 48R9, 26R1,
12R8, 4R7 and 5.  A few years ago we began recording a moving
average of daily sunspot numbers based on three calendar months, to
help us spot a sunspot cycle bottom.  Perhaps this would give us a
more immediate indication than smoothed sunspot numbers, which use a
whole year of data.  Because we now have all of the sunspot numbers
for December, we can calculate the three month average centered on
November 2009, 10R16, which is the highest it has been since August
2007 when it was 10R17.  We will know the average centered on
December at the end of January.  Over the past couple of years it
looked like the moving average bottomed out several times.  In late
2007 it appeared we hit bottom when the three month average centered
on October dropped to 3.  Then the average rose, and was in the
range of 8R23 to 8R89 centered on December 2007 through April 2008.
The average declined again, and hit 1R1 in August 2008.  In
September through November it moved to 2R5, 4R52 and 4R39, then
declined to a new minimum of 1R5 in March, 2009.  From there it
rose, stalled and rose dramatically when from April through November
2009 it was 2R01, 4R23, 5R2, 4, 4, 4R64, 7R1 and 10R163.  The
average daily sunspot number for just the month of December was
15R7, which is a good trend, 5R54 points higher than the 3 month
average.  On Wednesday of this week the sunspot number was zero, but
it rose to 15 on Thursday with the appearance of new sunspot group
1040.  Over the weekend sunspot groups 1036 and 1038 are due to
return, although we dont know yet if they are still powerful enough
to be classed as sunspots.  The latest prediction is for geomagnetic
conditions to remain quiet, with the anticipated planetary A index
at 5.  But looking at recent predictions from USAF/NOAA, that value
is probably a maximum, since they have predicted that value almost
every day for months, and actual numbers were better, or lower.
Check the table at www.swpc.noaa.gov and note that the planetary A
index hasnt gone as high as 5, and as of Friday morning the last
time it rose to 4 was December 14.  The same prediction shows solar
flux at 79 for today, January 8, 80 on January 9 and 10, 82 on
January 11, 84 on January 12, and 86 for January 13 to 15.  The
STEREO Mission has been a tremendous asset, and this year is
expected to move into a position which allows us to see magnetic
activity on the whole Sun.  This weekend, on January 9 at 0836z the
two satellites will be in position to see 87 percent of the Sun,
with the invisible spot on the far side exactly 13 percent.  88
percent coverage, with 12 percent invisible, will be achieved at
0611z on February 25, 2010.  If you would like to make a comment or
have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page.  For a detailed explanation
of the numbers used in this bulletin, see the k9la prop link off the
TIS web page.  An archive of past propagation bulletins is also
available.  Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and
twelve overseas locations are at the qst/propcharts link off the
ARRL web page.  Instructions for starting or ending email
distribution of this bulletin can be found on the W1AW web site.
Sunspot numbers were 16, 16, 22, 20, 15, 13, and 0 with a mean of
14R6. 10R7 cm flux was 79R9, 75R2, 78, 76R4, 73, 76R8, and 77R3 with
a mean of 76R7. Estimated planetary A indices were 1, 1, 0, 3, 2, 1
and 1 with a mean of 1R3.  Estimated mid latitude A indices were 0,
2, 1, 3, 1, 1 and 0 with a mean of 1R1‚

‰ End of 18 WPM transition file ‰