‰ Now 18 WPM transition file follows ‰

after a five week suspension, the fcc is again processing new
amateur radio vanity call sign applications.  the wireless
telecommunications bureau had stopped processing new vanity
applications while it readied the universal licensing system to
accommodate a december 15 rule change discouraging the filing of
multiple applications for the same call sign.  the fcc has continued
to accept new vanity applications and process vanity renewals.  the
commission could be back on track by next week‚ Average daily
sunspot numbers and solar flux were up this week, while average
daily geomagnetic indices were down, which is a nice combination.
Our reporting week hasnt had better geomagnetic stability, like a
lower average A index, since November 16 22, 2006, reported in last
years Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP049. That week the planetary
and mid latitude A indices were 3R6 and 2R1, while this weeks
numbers are 5R6 and 4R3.  Conditions wont remain quiet, and
geomagnetic activity should increase until next Tuesday, February
13. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet to unsettled
conditions for today, February 9, quiet conditions on February 10,
unsettled to active February 11, unsettled February 12, active
geomagnetic conditions on February 13, unsettled to active on
February 14, and February 15 unsettled.  The US Air Force predicts a
planetary A index for February 9 15 at 5, 5, 20, 20, 20, 15 and 5.
For those same days they predict solar flux values of 80, 83, 83,
81, 80 and 80.  We keep mentioning the bottom of the sunspot cycle,
and by some accounts, we are probably there, or very close. NOAA
Space Environment Center has a new prediction in this weeks
Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data, available
on the web.  Look at the table on page 10, and compare it with the
table on page 9 in the report from five weeks earlier. These are
predicted smoothed sunspot numbers, averaged over a year, going six
months prior and six months into the future for each month.  Notice
in the most recent report that the latest smoothed sunspot number
not in bold lettering is July 2006. That is because the real sunspot
data actually exists for six months after that month, and this is
the actual smoothed sunspot number, an average of averages, made up
from the monthly averages for January 2006 through January 2007. If
you check the report from five weeks ago, July 2006 is bold, because
there was one month for which actual sunspot numbers werent actually
yet known, January 2007. So in the latest report, the number for
October 2006 factors in three predicted but as yet unconfirmed
monthly averages, February through April 2007, and December includes
predicted numbers for five months, February through June 2007.  So
in the early January report, you can see that the numbers for
October 2006 through August 2007 were 13, 11, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10,
10, 10, 10 and 11. The most recent prediction for those same months
was 14, 12, 12, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12 and 11. Both reports seem
to place us at the bottom. The other clue is where the predicted
smoothed sunspot number is 10R9 for March 2007, with 11 for both
this month and April. March 2007 would be the lowest predicted
smoothed sunspot number shown in this table.  Sunspot numbers were
31, 36, 35, 28, 25, 23 and 23 with a mean of 28R7. 10R7 cm flux was
89R9, 90R3, 87R3, 83R7, 83, 81R9, and 82, with a mean of 85R4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 2, 3, 2, 6, 8 and 10 with a
mean of 5R6. Estimated mid latitude A indices were 7, 2, 1, 2, 4, 6
and 8, with a mean of 4R3‚


‰ End of 18 WPM transition file ‰