‰ Now 18 WPM transition file follows ‰

Last weeks Propagation Forecast Bulletin again mentioned briefly
appearing sunspots, and it happened again this week.  For just two
days, another Cycle 23 spot appeared, numbered 1014.  The latitude
of the spot was consistent with an old and fading solar cycle.  As
this period of quiet Sun drags on, statistic based projections of a
return to solar activity continue to be pushed out.  Early Friday
morning the planetary K index is rising to 5, then 5.  This is from
a stream of solar wind bearing down upon us.  NOAA and the US Air
Force predict a planetary A index of 15 for today, March 13, 10 for
Saturday, then back to 5.  Tough to forecast this far out, but they
show that active region returning on April 9.  On March 10 at 2333z
the Australian Space Forecast Center released a bulletin predicting
increased geomagnetic activity expected due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream from 13 and 14 March 2009.  The Center has 26
email alert services that anyone can subscribe to.  Check out
www.ips.gov.au and click on any subject title to subscribe to that
list.  Geophysical Institute Prague projects unsettled conditions
for March 13 and 14, and quiet conditions March 15 to 19.  Chuck
Zabreskie, KE5HPY of Houston, Texas wrote with an anecdote about
last weekends propagation.  Chuck wrote, Thought Id mention a
pleasant surprise last Saturday afternoon, from 2100 to 2200z,
during the recent International DX contest.  My rig is 100W into a
35 OCF, an off center fed, dipole, nothing fancy.  I need to look
where the others arent piled up.  20m was busy as youd expect so I
took a look at 15m after looking at W6EL Prop.  Great signals from
Peru, Argentina and Brazil among others, but little heard to the
north of my QTH in Houston, Texas, located 30 deg N.  Feeling lucky,
I looked at 10m and also had great copy from Argentina and Brazil
until 2230.  Nothing in W6EL suggested that should be where it
appeared.  Again, nothing heard to the north of them or here and
relatively few US operators coming back to their CQs.  Seemed like a
pipeline between TX/AZ into that zone.  Chuck continues, Nothing
like a contest to demonstrate what the bands permit.  Ill be calling
CQ on 10m this Saturday.  He ends with, Is this a seasonal effect
due to the equinox?  Is it common to see a small zone on either end
of the pipe?  I thought I would check into Chucks results using
W6ELprop, which should factor in the equinox.  Although the program
is meant to be used with the predicted smoothed sunspot number for
the month, I used a sunspot number of 12, the actual daily sunspot
number for March 6 and 7.  Chuck is near Rice University in Houston,
and actually sits to the south of the 30th parallel, at 29R725
degrees North latitude.  Using March 7 with a path to Brazil at 15
degrees south, 54 degrees west, I show that as a good time for
propagation on 15, and even 10, and especially 20 meters, using the
exact coordinates for Chucks QTH.  But I wonder why other North
American stations werent working the South America stations?  But it
is interesting that W6ELprop shows much less favorable conditions
for other stateside areas into Brazil, even from Dallas, which is
around the 33rd parallel.  Chuck and I will have to compare our
results using W6ELprop.  Sunspot numbers were 0, 12, 12, 0, 0, 0,
and 0 with a mean of 3R4.  10R7 cm flux was 69R2, 69R1, 69R1, 68R9,
69R1, 68R8, and 68R9 with a mean of 69.  Estimated planetary A
indices were 3, 2, 1, 8, 2, 3 and 3 with a mean of 3R1.  Estimated
mid latitude A indices were 3, 0, 0, 7, 1, 3 and 2 with a mean of
2R3‚

‰ End of 18 WPM transition file ‰