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This week saw higher geomagnetic activity and lower sunspot numbers
than the previous period. Our reporting week is Thursday through
Wednesday. Average daily sunspot numbers declined over five points
to 54R3. For today, May 12, look for active geomagnetic conditions,
with a planetary A index predicted at 25, then declining to 12 and
10 on Saturday and Sunday. Sunspot numbers and solar flux should be
a bit lower than the past week. Geophysical Institute Prague
predicts active geomagnetic conditions for today, May 12, unsettled
May 13, quiet to unsettled May 14, nice and quiet on May 15 and 16,
back to quiet to unsettled for May 17, and unsettled conditions on
May 18. A rash of email arrived this week alerting us to a new long
range sunspot cycle prediction. Only this time it isnt for upcoming
cycle 24, but the peak of cycle 25, reaching solarmax around 2022.
Think thats a long way off? It depends on your perspective, which I
suspect is determined by the proportion a given time period
represents when compared to the time youve been alive. For instance,
when starting out in early 1965 as WN7CSK, and still 12 years old,
looking ahead 16 years I would be 28, and the year 1981, hard to
fathom at the time. The old timers I knew then, such as Howard S.
Pyle, W7OE, first on the air around the same age in 1907, would have
laughed out loud at such an assessment. This spring it was 16 years
since I began writing this bulletin. And 16 years from now, in mid
2022, I will turn 70, a terrifying notion, because the last 16 years
went by so fast. I suspect the next 16 years to flash by quickly.
Even if beginning our ham life at a young age, we dont get to see
many solar cycles. Sunspot numbers were 50, 61, 69, 64, 53, 56 and
27 with a mean of 54R3. 10R7 cm flux was 91R8, 86R7, 87, 86R2, 84R7,
82R6, and 78R2, with a mean of 85R3. Estimated planetary A indices
were 14, 13, 24, 19, 8, 4 and 4 with a mean of 12R3. Estimated mid
latitude A indices were 10, 8, 14, 17, 5, 2 and 4, with a mean of
8R6‚

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