‰ Now 18 WPM transition file follows ‰

The average daily sunspot number for this week rose nearly 18 points
from the previous seven days.  On July 4 the A index was moderately
elevated due to a solar wind stream.  Expect to see a similar
increase around July 11, and a much greater increase in geomagnetic
activity from July 16 to 19.  Geophysical Institute Prague predicts
quiet conditions for July 6 to 9, quiet to unsettled July 10, and
unsettled conditions for July 11.  Monthly averages of daily sunspot
numbers for April 2006 through June 2007 were 55R2, 39R6, 24R4,
22R6, 22R8, 25R2, 14R7, 31R5, 22R2, 28R2, 17R3, 9R8, 6R9, 19R8 and
20R7.  Monthly averages of daily solar flux for the same period were
88R9, 80R9, 76R5, 75R8, 79, 77R8, 74R3, 86R3, 84R4, 83R5, 77R7,
72R2, 72R4, 74R4 and 73R7.  Looking at 3 month smoothed sunspot
numbers, knowing the June numbers we can add them to April and May
to show the three month average centered on May.  Here are the 3
month smoothed sunspot numbers based on data from the past 22 months
Oct 05 28, Nov 05 36, Dec 05 40R6, Jan 06 32R4, Feb 06 18R1, Mar 06
27R7, Apr 06 38R5, May 06 39R7, Jun 06 28R9, Jul 06 23R3, Aug 06
23R5, Sep 06 21R2, Oct 06 24R1, Nov 06 23R1, Dec 06 27R3, Jan 07
22R7, Feb 07 18R5, Mar 07 11R2, Apr 07 12R2, May 07 15R8 .  Why do
we say 22 months when only 20 months are shown?  This is because
these numbers are based on data from September 2005 through June
2007.  The months shown are the center of each three month average
of daily sunspot numbers.  Notice the averages centered on December
2006 through May 2007.  If we narrowly focus on just these data, it
sure looks like the cycle reached a minimum centered on March 2007,
rising since then.  Note also from the monthly averages above that
the June average at 20R7 is nearly five points higher than the 3
month average centered on May.  Look on page 9 in the July 3 Weekly
Preliminary Report and Forecast at,
www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/index.html and note the cycle minimum is
shown as March 2007, the same month that our three month average
shows.  This table is of actual and predicted smoothed sunspot
numbers, each based on a year of data.  December 2006 is based
entirely on known data, January 2007 is based on known data plus one
month of predicted data, July, February is based on two months of
predicted data, July and August, and the rest known data, and so on.
More 6 meter and Field Day reports came in this week.  Several Field
Day stations had a lot of luck on 15 meters, and they tended to be
in the Midwest and the South.  Dustin Cox, KE5NKG of New Mexico said
that on Field Day he had a great overnight run on 15 meters.  There
was a great deal of 6 meter activity in the final week of June.  On
June 25 John Butrovich, W6UWB of Orange Grove, Texas, EL17ax worked
20 European stations, mostly UK using the weak signal JT6M mode on
50R257 MHz.  For more info on JT6M, see //jt6m.org and
//www.qsl.net/wa5ufh/Misc/jt6m.htm.  seem to be stuck on SSB.
Sunspot numbers were 27, 29, 36, 30, 13, 12 and 13 with a mean of
22R9. 10R7 cm flux was 74R9, 75R3, 74, 74R3, 72R6, 71R7, and 72R4,
with a mean of 73R6. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 13, 6, 5,
3, 9 and 16 with a mean of 8R3.  Estimated mid latitude A indices
were 5, 5, 4, 4, 2, 6 and 13, with a mean of 5R6‚

‰ End of 18 WPM transition file ‰