‰ Now 18 WPM transition file follows ‰

Fifteen days in a row with no sunspots, but this may change soon.
Take a look at sunspot numbers compared to solar flux for the
current third quarter of 2007 on the sec.noaa.gov web site.  Notice
that when there are zero sunspots, the solar flux is always below
70.  Recently the flux value has been below 70, and for some time
now the US Air Force has predicted a slight rise in solar flux to 70
for today, September 21.  You can see those predictions also on the
sec.noaa.gov web site.  If we examine predictions from early
September on that page, note they show a return to a solar flux of
70 for September 17, then later forecasts show it creeping out to
September 18, then 19, and finally for yesterday the prediction for
today is 70.  We also see the return of sunspot group 970 set for
September 21 to 23, from the September 21 Solar Region Summary on
the sec.noaa.gov web site.  It would be great to have at least one
sunspot when Fall returns.  The official Autumnal Equinox is this
weekend, September 23 at 0951z.  Along with no sunspots, geomagnetic
indicators were very stable.  The US Air Force predicts a solar flux
value of 70 for September 21 through October 1, and a planetary A
index of 10, 15, 15, 10, 8 and 5 for September 21 to 26.
Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled conditions for
September 21, unsettled to active September 22, unsettled for
September 23 and 24, and quiet on September 25 to 27.  Even with no
sunspots, you can still get good results with a modest station.  Rod
Vlatch, NN0TT of Willmar, Minnesota reports that with 100 watts and
a modest commercial vertical antenna he worked the 3B7C expedition,
the Saint Brandon Island in the Indian Ocean, on 40 meter CW on
September 14.  This is CW DXCC number 291 for him, all with the same
modest setup.  Chip Margelli, K7JA, worked them on 40 meters at
0214z long path on September 12 using a 2/3 size loaded dipole at 30
feet from Southern California.  Last weeks Propagation Forecast
Bulletin ARLP038 mentioned PropNET, and this week Floyd Chowning,
K5LA of El Paso, Texas sent in a link to an interesting report on 10
meter sporadic E activity based on data from PropNET.  Read about it
on the web.  Bob Marston, K6TR of Fremont, California says, If Cycle
23 continues through January 2008 it will match Cycle 20 as one of
the longest in recent history.  You have to go back to Cycle 9 in
the Mid 1800s to find a longer one.  My own estimate is Cycle 23
will end in Feb 2008 with a SSN between 6R8 and 7R2.  Sunspot
numbers were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0 with a mean of 0. 10R7 cm flux
was 66R4, 66R8, 67R7, 67, 66R9, 66R5, and 66R8 with a mean of 66R9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 4, 4, 2, 2, 3 and 4 with a
mean of 3. Estimated mid latitude A indices were 1, 3, 3, 2, 1, 2
and 2, with a mean of 2‚

‰ End of 18 WPM transition file ‰