‰ Now 18 WPM transition file follows ‰

Last week saw another brief sunspot appearance followed by a quick
fade.  This was an old Cycle 23 spot, numbered 1001, and it resulted
in a sunspot number of 12 for September 11.  Solar flux values, a
measure of 2R8 GHz radiation detected by a parabolic antenna aimed
at the Sun in Penticton, British Columbia, were a bit higher this
week, although in normal times any flux value under 70 is considered
quite low.  The September 16 solar flux was 69R4, the highest it has
been since May 18, 2008.  Sunspot 1001 was similar to other recent
spots, which made only a weak, brief appearance.  Yesterday,
Belgiums Royal Observatory produced a report titled, The Sunspot
Number Clarified, which talks about these weak spots making brief
appearances, and the issues they raise during a sunspot minimum.  It
says that some human arbitration is required to determine what is
counted as an observed sunspot, and they base this on data from
multiple locations.  If some locations see no spot on the day in
question, the sunspot can still be counted if it is seen by multiple
other locations.  You can read about it on the sidc.oma.be site if
you click on the report title dated September 18, then click on the
link marked Handling very low activity levels.  You can download
this along with all other parts of the report from this site as
well.  For the near term, nothing indicates any emerging sunspots,
and the geomagnetic indicators should remain quiet with a planetary
A index of 5, until the end of the month.  September 30 through
October 2 the planetary A index is expected to be 8, 30, and 8.
Eight is a low number, but thirty indicates a geomagnetic storm,
probably expected from a recurring coronal hole spewing a strong
solar wind.  While the lack of sunspots is discouraging, the lack of
geomagnetic activity is welcome.  In times passed we had good
sunspot activity but constant solar wind, disturbing geomagnetic
conditions and making HF propagation very difficult.  On Tuesday,
September 23 scientists from the Ulysses International Solar Mission
will participate in a NASA teleconference which will talk about the
solar wind now being at a 50 year low.  The teleconference begins at
1230 PM EDT, or 1630z, and you can hear live audio on the
nasa.gov/newsaudio site.  You can see visuals that will accompany
the presentations from this site as well.  This week we saw a post
by John Sahr, WB7NWP, a professor of geophysics and electrical
engineering at the University of Washington.  He noted, Ive been
watching solar wind data daily for nearly a decade, and I have never
seen such a long period of such quiescence.  This Monday, September
22, marks the Autumnal Equinox, the first day of the Fall season.
This is generally considered a good time for HF communications, and
the Suns energy shines equally on the northern and southern
hemispheres.  When I use a propagation prediction program to compare
next Tuesday with the same date three months ago, there are some
differences.  For September from Seattle to New Zealand, 15 meters
offers a reasonable opportunity, but no possibility in June.  17
meters has a longer opening in September, although the June numbers
look good later in the evening.  20 meters is good from 0330 to
0530z in September, but in June the opening ends 30 minutes earlier,
and signals arent as strong.  In September 30 meters is very strong
all night long from 0500 to 1530z, but in June the openings are
brief, at 0430 to 0630z and again from 1400 to 1500z.  Sunspot
numbers were 12, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0 with a mean of 1R7.  10R7 cm
flux was 66R9, 66R3, 66R4, 66R8, 67R5, 69R4, and 67R1 with a mean of
67R2.  Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 2, 0, 6, 15, 9 and 3
with a mean of 5R3.  Estimated mid latitude A indices were 1, 0, 0,
4, 11, 7 and 3 with a mean of 3R7‚

‰ End of 18 WPM transition file ‰