‰ Now 18 WPM transition file follows‰

Last weeks report stated the possibility that zero sunspot days were
about to end, but no such luck.  Instead weve seen no sunspots for
three weeks straight, since September 7.  The September 20 forecast
from NOAA and the US Air Force showed solar flux values rising to 70
on September 21.  See
sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/forecasts/45DF/092045DF.txt.  The next days
prediction reverted to 67.  See
sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/forecasts/45DF/092145DF.txt.  The September 21
prediction had solar flux rising to 70 again, but not until
September 29 to October 1, then falling back below 70, then back to
70 again for October 18 to 28.  Now the September 27 forecast has
solar flux staying around 67 68 through November 11.  You can see
all the latest daily forecasts for solar flux and planetary A index
at sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html.  The possible end to
the stretch of zero sunspot days was based on the observation that
when the solar flux is 70 or higher, there is at least one visible
sunspot.  This makes it seem that we are still at the bottom of the
cycle, or havent quite reached it.  Those daily forecasts are posted
after 2100z.  There is a new sunspot 970 emerging, so perhaps the
September 28 forecast will show solar flux back to 70 or higher.
There is currently a solar wind hitting earth, and currently the
interplanetary magnetic field points south, which leaves earth
vulnerable.  That same forecast on September 27 predicts a planetary
A index for September 28 to October 3 at 15, 25, 12, 8, 8 and 15, so
we may see unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions on Saturday,
September 29 and again Wednesday, October 3.  Already early Friday
morning UTC, which is late Thursday on the West Coast, weve seen the
planetary K index as high as 6.  Lately with quiet conditions the K
index has been 1 or 2.  Above 3 is considered unsettled or active
geomagnetic conditions.  Geophysical Institute Prague predicts
unsettled conditions for September 28, unsettled to active September
29, unsettled September 30, quiet October 1, unsettled October 2 and
3, and quiet to unsettled October 4.  Jeff Lackey, K8CQ of Saint
Simons Island, Georgia wrote in with an interesting observation.  He
created a graph, which unfortunately is not on the web for viewing,
which plots periods in which the solar flux drops below 80 for
extended periods.  It shows the longest run at the end of cycle 22
was from January 8 through July 7, 1996, 182 days.  The second
longest run from 11 years ago was 112 days from August 2 to November
21, 1996.  The latest and also the longest run at the end of the
current cycle 23 began on June 9, 2007 and so far runs 112 days
through September 28.  The September 28 morning reading at
Penticton, the noon reading is the official value, has a very low
solar flux value of 64R4.  Sunspot numbers were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 and
0 with a mean of 0. 10R7 cm flux was 66R8, 66R9, 66R7, 66R3, 66R1,
66R2, and 66R5 with a mean of 66R5. Estimated planetary A indices
were 10, 9, 11, 15, 10, 6 and 3 with a mean of 9R1.  Estimated mid
latitude A indices were 6, 7, 10, 11, 7, 5 and 2, with a mean of
6R9‚

‰ End of 18 WPM transition file ‰