‰ Now 18 WPM transition file follows ‰

Recent sunspot activity, which ended on November 22, pushed up the
moving average weve been tracking for several years. Because we have
all the data for November, we now have the most recent 3 month
average of daily sunspot numbers, which centers on October. For
2009, the 3 month moving average centered on January through October
was 2R19, 2R02, 1R49, 2R01, 4R23, 5R2, 4, 4, 4R64 and 7R1. The
latest value is the highest since April 2008, when it was 8R89.  The
monthly averages of daily sunspot numbers are also rising, although
not as smoothly as the three month average. The monthly averages for
March through November 2009 are 0R77, 1R27, 3R97, 6R6, 5R07, 0R39,
6R6, 7 and 7R7. The November average is the highest since March,
2008 when it was 15R87.  Current projections show a steady quiet
planetary A index of 5 for December 4, then 8 for December 5 and 6,
and back to 5 through the end of the month. Solar flux predictions
show December 4 to 6 at 72, 73 on December 7 to 10, then 75 on
December 11 to 23.  The predicted solar flux value of 75 seems to
correspond to the return of an active region that we can see
emerging from the dark spot on STEREO.  An area that looked
promising a few days ago has moved over the horizon and not produced
any sunspots.  Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet to
unsettled conditions December 4, unsettled December 5, and quiet
December 6 to 10.  The same 45 day forecast from NOAA and US Air
Force referenced above also predicted a planetary A index of 5 for
December 3, but in fact all indices that day were zero, according to
www.swpc.noaa.gov.  The last time the planetary A index was five or
above was November 24 to 26. The directory at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu has links to the daily forecast for the
past few weeks. By sampling the forecasts, you can see that the
forecasters seem to prefer a planetary A index of 5 for their
minimum value. Five is an indicator of very stable and quiet
conditions, but in fact conditions have been even quieter.  Over the
past few years weve received reports from Dave Greer, N4KZ of
Frankfort, Kentucky, usually about 6 meters. The last was in
Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP028 in July. How do I know?  By
pointing a search engine at the propagation bulletin archive on the
ARRL web site.  Use any search engine, such as lycos.com, bing.com,
altavista.com or google.com, enter a call sign or a word or any
string of characters, then a space, followed by site and URL and hit
Search. In this case, I entered N4KZ at the www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/
and found seven bulletins since May 19, 2005 containing that call.
This will be number eight.  For more information concerning radio
propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page.
For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see
the k9la prop link off the TIS web page.  An archive of past
propagation bulletins is also available.  Monthly propagation charts
between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at the
qst/propcharts link off the ARRL web page.  Instructions for
starting or ending email distribution of this bulletin can be found
on the W1AW web site.  Sunspot numbers were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0
with a mean of 0. 10R7 cm flux was 74R7, 73R7, 72R9, 72R1, 72R4,
72R2, and 71R4 with a mean of 72R8. Estimated planetary A indices
were 6, 2, 3, 1, 2, 0 and 1 with a mean of 2R1. Estimated mid
latitude A indices were 3, 0, 2, 1, 1, 0 and 0 with a mean of 1‚

‰ End of 18 WPM transition file ‰