‰ Now 18 WPM transition files follows‰

Many of us are nearly giddy with joy over the recent steady increase
in sunspot activity, which seems long overdue. Average daily sunspot
numbers rose over 10 points this week compared to last, from 21R1 to
31R4.  The monthly average daily sunspot numbers for September,
October and November were 6R6, 7 and 7R7, so this is quite a large
jump.  Five new sunspot groups emerged since December 9, three of
those over the past week, on December 19 and 20.  These were groups
1035 and 1036 on December 19, and 1037 on December 20.  Today a new
sunspot appears to be forming, and you can see it via the Solar
Terrestrial Relations Observatory at stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov.  Look for
that bright spot in our Suns southern hemisphere, around minus 65 to
minus 70 degrees longitude.  If we consider there are twelve of
these 30 degree segments on the spinning Sun seen on the STEREO web
site, considering a complete solar rotation takes about 27R5 days,
each thirty degree segment passes over the horizon in about 2R3
days, or every 55 hours.  We cant tell if every bright spot beyond
the horizon is formed into a sunspot, but we can roughly calculate
how long it takes for a particular area of interest to rotate into
view.  Right now on early Thursday morning, December 24, I can see
an active area, number 1035, around  plus 115 degrees longitude or
so, about 25 degrees over the horizon.  We can roughly assume that
it is about 155 degrees longitude away from its reappearance at the
minus 90 degree longitude horizon on the other side.  This should be
about 11 to 12 days from now.  Of course we do not know if activity
in this area will increase or decrease in the next couple of weeks.
At www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html we see a prediction
for December 24, in the December 23 forecast, showing predicted
solar flux values of 76, 74, and 72 for December 24 to 26,
continuing at 72 until January 4, around the time this region
reemerges, when it rises to 75, then 77 for January 5 and 6, then 80
on January 7 to 9, and 85 for January 10 to 18.  We also see steady
quiet geomagnetic conditions, with planetary A index rising slightly
to 7, just for December 27 and 28.  Or course, this could be wrong.
Note that in the December 16 to 19 forecasts the expected planetary
A index for December 20 was 15.  Data from the bottom of our
bulletin shows that planetary A index for that day was only 1.  The
new issue of WorldRadio Online is out.  Check pages 22 to 24 for
Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LAs excellent monthly propagation feature,
this month titled, Is There a Most Advantageous Band and Time?
Sunspot numbers were 24, 20, 43, 42, 42, 26, and 23 with a mean of
31R4. 10R7 cm flux was 86R9, 84R2, 81R7, 83R7, 82R7, 82R2, and 78R4
with a mean of 82R8. Estimated planetary A indices were 1, 2, 1, 1,
1, 2 and 2 with a mean of 1R4. Estimated mid latitude A indices were
2, 2, 0, 2, 1, 2 and 3 with a mean of 1R7‚

‰ End of 18 WPM transition file‰