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    Digital Communication Systems Using SystemVue -- An essential guide for anyone wishing to understand digital communication systems through simulations using SystemVue.

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    It Seems to Us: Growth

    By David Sumner, K1ZZ
    February 1, 2008


    The ARRL Volunteer Examiner Department has been busy! As one of several Volunteer Examiner Coordinators that serve the Amateur Radio community, ARRL/VEC processes more than 70% of the applications for new and upgraded FCC licenses. ARRL's Volunteer Examiners and those affiliated with other VECs were faced with greatly increased demand last February when the Morse code examination was phased out; they rose to the challenge and are continuing to deal with elevated levels of applicants for all three classes of license that are now available.


    Looking simply at the total number of amateur licensees would cause you to miss what's going on. The trend in recent years has been slightly downward; it's no secret that with the many options for personal communications that are now available, Amateur Radio is less attractive to people who are simply looking for a way to communicate. A generation ago, with repeater autopatches and packet radio, we had better communications tools than were available to the general public. That's no longer the case; for a dollar or two a day, anyone now can subscribe to services that were in the realm of science fiction just a few decades ago.

    Over the past year the total number of licensees has remained pretty stable. According to the statistics maintained by Joe Speroni, AHØA, there are about 656,000 valid FCC Amateur Radio operator licenses. This is an increase of tenths of a percentage point since last February, hardly the stuff of headlines. It's a somewhat encouraging figure compared to the decline of slightly more than 1% per year from the April 2003 peak of 687,860 until early 2007 but doesn't really look like much of a change. Besides, the 10 year license term causes these figures to be somewhat overstated; many of these licensees are deceased or inactive. If a licensee dies or drops out of Amateur Radio today, that fact may not be reflected in the statistics for as much as a decade.

    Joe's data by license class show increases in the number of General licenses of about 9%, and of Amateur Extra licenses of about 3%, since the rules change. Because the overall total didn't change that much, of course these increases came at the expense of the Novice and Advanced, which are no longer available to new applicants and therefore are bound to decline as a result of upgrades and expirations. The number of Technician licenses also has declined; because that figure had been trending upward before the rules change it is reasonable to attribute this to increased upgrading, and as we shall see that is indeed the case.

    Moving away from license totals to look at examination activity instead, a much clearer picture emerges. According to statistics on overall VEC activity maintained by ARRL/VEC and anticipating December's results (since this is being written in the middle of that month), in 2007 about 20,000 amateurs upgraded to General (mostly from Technician) and more than 5000 upgraded to Extra. The comparable figures for 2006 were about 4000 and 2000 respectively. But that's not all; more than 2000 people went from no license at all to General in one examination session -- quadruple the number who did so in 2006 -- and about 400 (double the 2006 figure) went from no license all the way to Extra!

    At the same time there is a healthy trend at the entry level. Approximately 25,000 Technician licenses were issued in 2007, compared to just over 20,000 in 2006 and about 16,000 in 2005. That's still a far cry from the heady days of the early 1990s after the code requirement was eliminated for the Technician license, but we stand a better chance of holding the attention of these new amateurs.

    It is a pleasure to report that the new licensees and recent upgrades are joining the ARRL. Total membership increased by about 4000 during 2007, to more than 152,000. If you are among the newcomers to the ARRL, welcome! More members means that we're better able to preserve, promote and advance Amateur Radio. Your support and active participation in your national organization helps ensure that your operating privileges will be protected and that Amateur Radio will continue to be available to future generations.

    Is growth good? In general, yes. While you may think that your favorite band is crowded enough as it is at the times when you like to operate, overall there is plenty of room to accommodate newly active amateurs. Besides, competition for access to the radio spectrum continues to increase; there is an expectation that for a radio service to hold onto (much less expand) its spectrum allocations, it must use its existing allocations ever more efficiently to accommodate new users and new functions.

    More important, we need these new amateurs. As a radio spectrum occupant that pays its "rent" by serving the public interest, Amateur Radio has public service obligations. There are few places in the country where there are enough trained amateurs available to do everything we could and should be doing. We need more among us who are willing to equip themselves with new digital, as well as traditional, communications tools to meet the needs of the disaster response agencies we serve; who are willing to learn and to practice; and who will respond when called. It is encouraging that new licensees frequently cite an interest in public service and emergency communications as their principal reason for wanting to become radio amateurs.

    An Amateur Radio license doesn't automatically make its holder a skilled communicator, but it's a good start. In addition to the Volunteer Examiners already mentioned, we should also recognize the contributions of the instructors among us who willingly devote their time and talent to the training of prospective licensees and upgrades. Thank you! Your efforts are essential to the growth of Amateur Radio -- not just in numbers but more importantly, in our capability to serve.

       



    Page last modified: 01:30 PM, 04 Jan 2008 ET
    Page author: k1zz@arrl.org
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