The K7VVV Solar Update
SEATTLE, WA, Aug 9, 2002--After the previous week's
heightened activity, solar flux and sunspot values rolled back quite a bit.
Average daily sunspot numbers for this week were down 120 points, and average
daily solar flux was off nearly 70 points. Solar flux values fell since
reaching 241.5 on July 16 but should rise again next week. Solar flux values
predicted for August 10-16 are 135, 140, 145, 145, 150, 150 and 160. Solar flux
is expected to peak in the vicinity of 215 around August 23-24, based on the
previous solar rotation.
Geomagnetic
conditions should be quiet for the next few days, but it sure wasn't quiet
August 1-3, when planetary K indices reached 6, indicating a geomagnetic storm
complete with dramatic aurora displays at northern latitudes. Check out the
link to the Auroral Station in Adventdalen
Web site in Norway. Also check the Aurora Links page of the University of Alaska
for more aurora information
as well as the NOAA Today's Space
Weather and SpaceWeather.com sites for daily space weather updates.
Day
by day we will gradually move away from summertime to fall propagation. We will
especially notice a change on 10, 12 and 15 meters, which are affected by
thinning of the ionosphere during the summer. K3MIY mentioned in an e-mail this
week that ionospheric heating in the northern hemisphere causes this. The most
reliable DX band right now is 20 meters.
K9GY
requested a plug for the CW portion of the Worked All Europe DX Contest this
weekend. He mentioned http://www.waedc.de/
for more info on the contest. For path projections, those interested in working
Europe might use a solar flux value around 140 plugged into the W6ELprop
software, which you can download from the W6ELprop site.
W6EL recently updated the software to version 2.61, making some improvements to
the user interface.
Sunspot
numbers for August 1 through 7 were 259, 220, 218, 150, 144, 135 and 141, with
a mean of 181. The 10.7-cm flux was 192.6, 180.3, 167.8, 150.9, 141.9, 144.6
and 136.2, with a mean of 159.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 26, 37, 20,
16, 8, 9 and 8, with a mean of 17.7.
Amateur solar observer Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, Washington, provides this weekly report on solar conditions and
propagation. This report also is available via W1AW every Friday, and an
abbreviated version also appears in The ARRL Letter. Readers
may contact the author via k7vvv@arrl.net.
Page last modified: 10:39 AM, 09 Aug 2002 ET
Page author: awextra@arrl.org
Copyright © 2002, American Radio Relay League, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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