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 Previous: Amateur Radio Volunteers Still Needed |  Next: ARRL COO Testifies on Capitol Hill to Amateur Radio's Value in Disasters |
SEATTLE, WA, Sep 30, 2005--Average daily sunspot numbers dropped over the past week by more than 16 points to 29.7. Solar flux values were down 20 points to 80.2. The week was quiet with no geomagnetic storms. September 26-28 had the most geomagnetic activity, but it was all pretty mild. The K index for middle latitude and planetary readings only went to 3 or 4 on occasion and quickly dropped back to 2.
The forecast for the next few days, September 30 to October 2, is for low sunspot activity. The next peak of activity may be when sunspot 798 returns. It's currently on the sun's far side. That activity should peak around October 14-16.
The geomagnetic prediction for this weekend is for mild to unsettled conditions, with the planetary A index for September 30 through October 3 at 15, 15, 12 and 12. Prague Geophysical Institute predicts quiet conditions for October 5 and 6, quiet to unsettled conditions October 3 and 4, and unsettled conditions September 30 through October 2.
Brandon Duke, KC0UWS, reports he's still working 10 meters successfully from Colorado into South America with only 25 W and an indoor Isoloop antenna in his apartment. Earlier this month he worked Brazil, Belize, Costa Rica and Argentina among others, all with S8 signal reports. Fifteen meters is still good as well and open more often than 10 meters.
A path projection from Dallas, Texas, to Brazil over this weekend with a sunspot number of only 22 shows 15 meters opening strongly from 1530 to 2300 UTC. Signal strengths should be better toward the end of that period. The West Coast also looks good, with 15 probably open from 1630 to 2400 UTC toward Brazil from Seattle. Move east though, and the opening tightens a bit. From Cleveland, the opening isn't as strong and probably only runs from 1630 to 2000 UTC.
Allan Greening, VK3PA, said he has worked 250 countries on 80 meters from Australia over the past three years. He's posted his notes on DX worked.
For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service Propagation page.
Sunspot numbers for September 22 through 28 were 28, 49, 33, 28, 25, 23 and 22, with a mean of 29.7. The 10.7 cm flux was 83.7, 82.8, 81.4, 81, 81.3, 76.9, and 74.6, with a mean of 80.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 8, 4, 5, 14, 13 and 12, with a mean of 9.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 5, 2, 3, 9, 10 and 12, with a mean of 6.7.
Amateur solar observer Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, Washington, provides this weekly report on solar conditions and propagation. This report
also is available via W1AW every Friday, and an abbreviated version appears in The ARRL Letter. Readers may contact
the author via e-mail.
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