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The K7RA Solar Update

11/27/2013

Because of the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow, we have a shortened bulletin two days early, and another one will follow on Monday, December 2 which will contain the data for our regular reporting week, which is November 21-27.

But being one day short of a full week of data, we can see that so far, the average sunspot number for November 21-26 fell 131.8 points to 61.5, and average daily solar flux declined from 166.9 to 130.2. We all hope it comes back! Those numbers are compared to the previous seven days reported in last week’s bulletin, November 14-20.

The latest prediction has solar flux at 120 on November 27-30, 125 on December 1-2, 130 and 140 on December 3-4, 150 on December 5-6, 155 on December 7, 165 on December 8-14, then 160, 155 and 145 on December 15-17 and 140 on December 18-19. Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November 27, 5 on November 28 through December 3, 10 and 5 on December 4-5, then 15, 15 and 12 on December 6-8, 5 on December 9-12, 10 and 8 on December 13-14, and 5 on December 15-21.

Jon Jones, N0JK, of Lawrence, Kansas reported: “I corresponded with Pat, WA5IYX about the November 9, 2013 opening.

“The November 9, 2013 6 meter F2 opening for North America to the Caribbean and northern South America was unique as it is probably the first morning F2 opening of solar cycle 24. There were a number of these "morning F2" openings in solar Cycle 22 and 23. Most frequent in the late fall and winter months, and often after or during a geomagnetic storm. Pat, WA5IYX, reminded me of a much bigger opening like this on November 8-9, 1991. I recall working Africa, Central and South America in the morning, followed by Hawaii then Australia in the afternoon on 6 meters. The 2013 opening dissipated before moving west to the South Pacific. Pat's log of the November, 1991 event is available at http://www.qsl.net/wa5iyx/11081091.txt.

“As for recent HF propagation, 10 meters was very good Sunday in the ARRL Sweepstakes. Rare sections such as Northwest Territories (VE8EV), Alaska, Canadian Maritime (VY2ZM), Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands were loud.”

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://www.arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://www.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.

 



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