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The K7RA Solar Update

08/10/2012

The average daily sunspot numbers rose more than 20 points this week -- about 20 percent -- to 119.4, while the average daily solar flux was up 3 points to 134.7. Sunspot numbers for August 2-8 were 126, 160, 140, 107, 108, 96 and 99, with a mean of 119.4. The 10.7 cm flux was 134.6, 139.7, 138.7, 134, 134.1, 128.5 and 133.3, with a mean of 134.7. The estimated planetary A indices were 16, 7, 7, 6, 11, 7 and 10, with a mean of 9.1. The estimated mid-latitude A indices were 16, 8, 6, 6, 10, 8, and 12 with a mean of 9.4.

Geomagnetic activity was quiet, with unsettled conditions around August 2. The NOAA/USAF prediction has the solar flux at 135 on August 10, 130 on August 11-12, then 125, 120, and 115 on August 13-15, back down to 110 on August 16-17, then 95, on August 18, 100 on August 19-20, then rising to 110, 115, 120, 125, 130, 135, 140 and 145 on August 21-28, and then 140 on August 29-31. The predicted planetary A index is 5, 8 and 10 on August 10-12, then 5 on August 13-15, then 10, 8, 5, 8 and 8 on August 16-20, then 5 on August 21-23, and 8 on August 24-25, then 12 on August 26, then back down to 5 on August 27-September 14.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH, sees quiet geomagnetic conditions on August 10, mostly quiet August 11, active-to-disturbed August 12, quiet-to-active August 13, mostly quiet on August 14, quiet August 15-16, quiet-to-unsettled August 17-20, mostly quiet August 21, quiet August 22-24, quiet-to-active August 25-26, mostly quiet August 27-28, active-to-disturbed again August 29-30, and a return to quiet on August 31-September 1.

Check out some nice solar images here and here.

O.J. Lougheed, AD7DR, of Lopez Island, Washington, wrote: “I've been interested in transpolar propagation since I lived in Irkutsk, Siberia from 1997-2004. I'm thinking of putting together a ham club at the school on Lopez Island and your name popped up with an Internet search. There is so little on the web. With sunspots picking up, things (I would assume) will get exciting. Do you know of any European or Russian/Ukrainian folks interested in such propagation?”

I don’t know, but if any readers across the poles or anywhere want to contact AD7DR, look him up in QRZ.com, where you will find his e-mail address. You will have to log in, but getting an account is free.

Larry Godek, W0OGH, of Gilbert, Arizona wrote on Thursday, August 9: “ I worked Spratly Island, 9M4SLL, on both 20 meter SSB and CW, along with CW on 15, with great signals. I worked Comoros Islands, D64K, on 15 meters yesterday at 2155. There were good signals into this area all the time he was on the air. Typically, shortly after I get to work them, the band goes out. This happens a lot to me on 20, as well. I also worked ZS2I this morning at 1353 on 20 meters CW, long path. He couldn’t hear me on the regular path, so he turned the antenna around to 270 degrees and he came up to over S9. Talk about short hop, I worked J68HZ yesterday at 2224 on 28.375 MHz. He was working mainly 4-land and the East Coast. I was urprised he came back to me.

“The same thing happened with HT9H on 18.073 MHz at 2215. But then we had a large storm front within 100 miles from the north. Then 20 meters this morning has been excellent to the Pacific. Yesterday in the morning, we had a 6 meter opening, double hop into Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina and Texas. There was nothing unusual about the Texas stations, as the EM00-EM03 and EM10-EM13 are the first hop for us. They usually have loud signals and are typically the first stations from the east that we hear.

“It’s really been a pretty fair year so far for DX, even as 30 meters has been a disappointment, as has 10. If it wasn’t for 15 and 20, there would be very little DX.”

Burton Boyd, W7IIT, of Bremerton, Washington, says his hearing isn’t as sharp as it used to be, and he can’t always hear the WWV broadcasts of geophysical data at 18 minutes after each hour. I advised Burt to get the info off the Internet here.

All times listed are UTC, unless otherwise noted.

Amateur solar observer Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, provides this weekly report on solar conditions and propagation. This report also is available via W1AW every Friday, and an abbreviated version appears each Thursday in The ARRL Letter. You can find a guide to articles and programs concerning propagation here. Check here and here for a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin. An archive of past propagation bulletins can be found here. You can find monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and 12 overseas locations here. Readers may contact the author via e-mail.



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