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The K7RA Solar Update

11/21/2014

Average daily sunspot numbers rose this past week nearly 14 points to 98.9, while average daily solar flux increased 25 points to 164.4.

Predicted solar flux is 170 on November 21, 175 on November 22-23, then 170, 155 and 150 on November 24-26, then 145, 130 and 120 on November 27-29, 115 on November 30 through December 6, 135 and 155 on December 7-8, 165 on December 9-10, and 160 on December 11-15. Solar flux peaks at 170 on December 17-19 and declines to 115 on December 27-31.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on November 21, 10 on November 22, 12 on November 23-24, 8 on November 25, 5 on November 26 through December 3, 12, 10 and 8 on December 4-6, 5 on December 7-10, and 10, 15, 20, 15, 12, 10, 8, 10 and 12 on December 11-19.

Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, sends a geomagnetic forecast this week from the Czech Republic. He predicts the geomagnetic field will be quiet to unsettled November 21-23, mostly quiet November 24, quiet November 25-26, mostly quiet November 27—29, quiet to unsettled November 30, active to disturbed December 1, quiet to active December 2, quiet to unsettled December 3-4, mostly quiet December 5, quiet to active December 6-7, quiet to unsettled December 8, mostly quiet December 9-10, quiet to unsettled December 11, quiet to active December 12-13, quiet to unsettled December 14-15, and quiet to active December 16-17.

Petr expects an increase in solar wind on November 30 through December 2 and December 11-13.

David Moore sent this article with time-lapse video of that huge sunspot:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/11/sunspot-time-lapse-ar-2192_n_6137490.html

Jon Jones, N0JK, reported that on November 10, Mike White, K7ULS, in Utah worked KH6U and KH6/K6MIO on six meters via F2 propagation using a ground mounted Ringo Ranger vertical. But take a look at http://www.qrz.com/db/k7uls. There is a nice photo of that antenna, which is 8,000 feet above sea level! Mike is running 100 watts, and told me both contacts were on SSB.

Yet another article and video about mammoth sunspots is in Phil Plait’s Bad Astronomy blog:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/11/16/sdo_and_sunspot_2192_amazing_hi_def_video.html


For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for November 13 through 19 were 104, 117, 100, 91, 95, 92, and 72, with a mean of 98.9. 10.7 cm flux was 153.5, 161, 160.6, 171.5, 167.5, 167.4, and 169.6, with a mean of 164.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 12, 17, 22, 12, 11, and 8, with a mean of 12.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 9, 13, 18, 8, 9, and 6, with a mean of 9.6.

 



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