Over the past week (September 29 through October 5), relative to the previous seven days the average daily sunspot number declined 9 points to 20.7, and average daily solar flux increased from 81.4 to 86.7. Average daily planetary A index increased from 19.7 to 21.4, and average mid-latitude A index (measured in Virginia) increased from 12.3 to 15.1.

Hey, think that was bad? At University of Alaska’s magnetometer which supplies us with the College A Index (see http://bit.ly/2dNZSEu), the number went to 73 on September 29, with the average of the week at 35.9.

Predicted solar flux from the October 6, 2016 forecast shows 102 on October 7-8, 105 on October 9, 102 on October 10-12, 100 on October 13, 90 on October 14, 95 on October 15-18, 90 on October 19-21, 85 on October 22-26, 80 On October 27-31, 85 on November 1-2, 90 on November 3-10, 95 on November 11-14 and 90 on November 15-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 7-12, then 8, 5, 8, 10, 20 and 8 on October 13-18, 5 on October 19-22, 20 on October 23, 35 on October 24-26, then 20, 15, 15, 12, 15 and 10 on October 27 through November 1, 5 on November 2-10, then 10, 20 and 8 on November 11-14, and 5 on November 15-18.

OK1MGW sent this:

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 7-November 2, 2016

Geomagnetic field will be:

Quiet on October 7-8, 13-14, 19-20

Mostly quiet on October 9-10, 12,19, November 1-2

Quiet to unsettled on October 11, 15-16, 21

Quiet to active on October 17-18, 22-23, 28-31

Active to disturbed on October 24-27

Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on October 16-18, 22-30

On October 6, NASA released an updated prediction for 10.7 cm solar flux for the remainder of Cycle 24: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/f107_predict.jpg 

Accompanying text is at http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml 

The average sunspot number for July, August and September was 40.

The 3-month moving averages of daily sunspot numbers for this year, for periods ending in February through September were 53.5, 49, 45.3, 43.1, 35.4, 33, 33.5 and 40.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for September 29 through October 5 were 17, 12, 0, 13, 32, 33, and 38, with a mean of 20.7. 10.7 cm flux was 82.7, 80.6, 81, 82.3, 87.8, 93.1, and 99.3, with a mean of 86.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 39, 21, 19, 18, 14, 26, and 13, with a mean of 21.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 22, 15, 14, 15, 12, 18, and 10, with a mean of 15.1.