ARRL

Register Account

Login Help

News

The K7RA Solar Update

12/30/2016

The Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning on December 29 at 0010 UTC.


“A recurrent equatorial coronal hole will soon reach geoeffective location on the solar disk. The size of the current coronal hole is relatively larger compared to its characteristics during the previous rotation. The co-rotating interaction region and subsequent high speed streams associated with the coronal hole is expected to affect Earth from late 30 December. Auroras may be visible on the local nights of 30 and 31 December in Tasmania and possibly from the coastline of Victoria.”


The warning said to expect active geomagnetic conditions on December 30 and 31.


The past two and a half weeks have seen seven days with zero sunspots, spread over four periods of one to three days each.


The first was December 10, then two days over December 16-17, then three days on December 23-25 and finally yesterday, December 29.


Over the latest reporting week, December 22-28, average daily sunspot number was 7.6, down from 11 over the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux changed only slightly from 73.2 to 73.6. Average daily planetary A index increased from 7.9 to 17.3 and mid-latitude A index from 5.7 to 11.6.


Predicted solar flux is about the same as recent indices. 72 on December 30, 75 on December 31 through January 6, 79 on January 7-9, 77 on January 10-13, 75 on January 14-19, 73 on January 20-23, 75 on January 24-27, 77 on January 28 through February 1, 79 on February 2-5, and 77 on February 6-9.


Predicted planetary A index is 10, 24, 18, 10 and 12 on December 30 through January 3, 24 on January 4-5, then 16, 14 and 6 on January 6-8, 5 on January 9-13, 10 on January 14, 5 on January 15-16, then 25, 20 and 25 on January 17-19, 18 on January 20-21, 10 on January 22, 5 on January 23-25, then 15, 10, 5, 8, 10 and 20 on January 26-31, then 22, 16, 14 and 6 on February 1-4 and 5 on February 5-9.


We also have a geomagnetic activity forecast from Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, for the period December 30 2016 til January 25, 2017.

Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on January 10-12
Mostly quiet on January 8-9, 25
Quiet to unsettled on January 1-3, 13-16, 23-24
Quiet to active on December 30 January 6-7, 17-20
Active to disturbed on December 31, January 4-5, 21-22


Increased solar wind from coronal holes expected on December 30-31, January 4-7, 17-22.

 

,
Bob Hillman, AG6XC/VE7EK wrote: "I find the K7RA Solar Updates of value and look forward to each one.


“While I take the time to dig into the science, I've developed a fondness for the candid comments of hams reporting their personal experiences.


“All are different and reading them reminds me why I developed a life-long interest in the hobby. I like hearing from the guy who perseveres and finds some DX with a limited station and limitless patience. 


“It keeps alive some of the mystery and magic of the art, with some unique stories of success, even in light of poor HF propagation conditions.


“Warmest wishes for a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!"

 

Don’t forget, Straight Key Night happens this weekend. Unpack your old J-38, Speed-X or Lionel (or any other) straight key and put it on the air. Details at http://www.arrl.org/straight-key-night.


Here are a few images of straight keys to whet your appetite for tomorrow:

http://www.arrl.org/images/view/Soapbox/sop-12102.jpg

http://www.arrl.org/images/view/Soapbox/P1020280.JPG

http://www.maxmccoy.com/Western-Electric-Key.jpg

http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3273/2874491297_d892abf31b_z.jpg


http://www.i2rtf.com/assets/images/SPARK_SCONTORNATO.jpg

https://sites.google.com/site/wb9lpu/D40-0258r.jpg

http://www.kn5l.net/morse/vibro_straight.jpg

http://www.qsl.net/ur3ijc/ur3ijc_trcvr.jpg

http://www.telegraphkeys.com/images/straightkeys/swedish/oller-mine.jpg

http://bit.ly/2hC0fmK

http://www.wj1b.com/uploads/8/4/0/9/8409204/9766595_orig.jpg

 


For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for December 22 through 28 were 12, 0, 0, 0, 13, 14, and 14, with a mean of 7.6. 10.7 cm flux was 74.8, 73.7, 73.1, 72.5, 73.8, 73.7, and 73.3, with a mean of 73.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 24, 14, 21, 22, 11, and 6, with a mean of 17.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 15, 17, 10, 12, 15, 8, and 4, with a mean of 11.6.

 

 



Back

EXPLORE ARRL

Instragram     Facebook     Twitter     YouTube     LinkedIn