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The K7RA Solar Update

04/14/2017

Solar indicators, both sunspot numbers and solar flux, both dropped this week, in fact on April 8 there were no sunspots. Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 65.9 to 16.6, and average daily solar flux went from 96.5 to 73.8, compared to the previous seven days, .

Average daily planetary A index went from 15.6 to 10.6, and average daily mid-latitude A index declined from 13 to 9.3.

Predicted solar flux shows 75 on April 14-15, 85 on April 16-17, 80 on April 18, 95 on April 19-21, 92 on April 22-23, 90 on April 24-29, 80 on April 30, 78 on May 1-2, 72 on May 3-4, 75 on May 5-6, 72 on May 7-12, 75 and 85 on May 13-14, 88 on May 15-16, 95 on May 17-18, 92 on May 19-20, and 90 on May 21-26.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 10 and 8 on April 14-16, 25 on April 17-18, 12 and 8 on April 19-20, 5 on April 21-22, then 55, 28, 20 and 22 on April 23-26, then 28, 15, 8 and 5 on April 27-30, then 20, 10, 8 and 10 on May 1-4, 15 on May 5-6, 12 on May 7, 8 on May 8-10, 5 on May 11-13, then 20, 18 and 10 on May 14-16, 5 on May 17-19, then 55, 28, 20, 22, 28, 15 and 8 on May 20-26.


F.K. Janda, OK1HH, sent us his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 14 to May 9, 2017.

Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on April 16, 20-22, 30, May 5, 9-10
Mostly quiet on April 14-15, 21, May 3-4, 6
Quiet to unsettled April 19, 29, May 1, 2, 7, 8
Quiet to active on April 23, 25-28
Active to disturbed on April 17-18, 24

Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on April (15,) 16-19, 24-27

Remark:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction.


Tamitha Skov’s latest video concerning space weather: http://bit.ly/2pwQIwu


Bil Paul, KD6JUI, wrote on April 7: "The high solar flux number for Wednesday, April 5 (around 95) didn't seem to translate into good propagation. I was out in my kayak trying to qualify an island in Northern California for US Islands on the Air, running my usual 10 W into an end-fed half-wave wire vertical (won't even get into how I can set that up while operating from kayak!).


“As usual, I started operating on 17-meter SSB. One contact told me I was the only signal he was hearing on the entire band. I only obtained 3 contacts on 17 meters (SSB/CW), then went down and tried 20 meters. I could hear Europe and South America coming in on SSB, but from my little pistol setup, I only found 3 more contacts before I rolled up the rug and went off the air. But it's encouraging that the solar flux is often predicted to be running considerably higher for the next 30 days or so.”


For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at 
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at 
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at 
http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at 
http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for April 6 through 12, 2017 were 38, 27, 0, 13, 13, 12, and 13, with a mean of 16.6. 10.7 cm flux was 75.7, 73.9, 73.1, 74.4, 73.6, 74.6, and 71.4, with a mean of 73.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 10, 16, 18, 5, 12, and 6, with a mean of 10.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 9, 14, 16, 5, 10, and 6, with a mean of 9.3.

 



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