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The K7RA Solar Update

02/07/2020

We saw a nice run of cycle 24 and cycle 25 sunspots from January 24 through February 1. Daily sunspot number reached a short-term peak of 18 on January  26.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 11.1 reported in last week’s bulletin to 4.7 over the current reporting week, January 30 through February 5.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 71 on February 7-14, 72 on February 15-20, 73 on February 21-22, 74 on February 23-29, 72 on March 1-3, 71 on March 4-11, 72 on March 12-18, 73 on March 19-20, and 74 on March 21-22.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on February 7, 5 on February 8-24, 10 on February 25-26, 5 on February 27-29, 8 on March 1-3, and 5 on March 4-22.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 7 until March 04, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be
quiet on: February 12, 15-23
quiet to unsettled on: February 8, 10-11, 13-14, 24, 27, March 1-4
quiet to active on: February 7, (9, 28)
unsettled to active on: (February 25-26)
active to disturbed: none

Solar wind will intensify on: February 7, 12-15, (16,) 18-20
(21-22,) 26, (March 4)

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

David Moore sent this: "Scientists have unlocked one of the mysteries of how particles from flares on the sun accumulate at early stages in the energization of hazardous radiation that is harmful to astronauts, satellites and electronic equipment. Using data from NASA's Parker Solar Probe, they observed one of the largest events that shows how plasma is released after a solar flare can accelerate and pile up energetic particles generating dangerous radiation conditions."

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200203162844.htm

AA2F sent this in a message he titled "Martian Sporadic E?" https://bit.ly/2H14NgL

Ted Leaf, K6HI, Kona, Hawaii sent this: https://bit.ly/2OAFwhn

Jeff, N8II reported on January 31: "The CQ World Wide 160 meter CW contest on January 25 and 26 featured the best conditions I have ever experienced in a Top Band test. I worked 34 outside of North American DX contacts on the first night and 90 Europeans the second night running 100 W to my half sloper antenna!

“From 0030-0330Z signals were incredibly strong from Europe. I was able to call CQ and get many European answers from all over the continent and was called by P33W in Cyprus and 4X2M in Israel. A total of 26 Germans were logged in the contest. The highlight of the first night was being called by CX6VM in Uruguay for my best DX of the weekend.

The solar flux continues to inch higher, but openings on 17 meters to Europe are generally poor and just an occasional Mediterranean opening occurs on 15 meter around 1500Z."

Here is the latest video forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/aZWWc72meBA

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for January 30 through February 5, 2020 were 11, 11, 11, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 4.7. 10.7 cm flux was 74.1, 73.9, 72.5, 72.2, 72.1, 70.3, and 70.6, with a mean of 72.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 8, 6, 6, 5, 5, and 5, with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 9, 6, 4, 4, 3, 5, and 4, with a mean of 5.

 



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