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NOAA Updates Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

04/22/2020

Frank Donovan, W3LPL, notes that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has published its official updated prediction of Solar Cycle 25 in new, interactive Solar Cycle Progression graphs. The updated prediction is based on the results of NOAA’s Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel.

“SWPC forecasts a solar maximum between 105 and 125, with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026,” Donovan said. “There is broad consensus that solar minimum is ongoing this year — or may have already occurred — and that Cycle 25 will have no major change in the level of solar activity compared to Cycle 24.”

As Donovan explained, for many years the SWPC’s solar cycle predictions have used the Royal Observatory of Belgium’s International Sunspot Number. SWPC’s official solar cycle prediction now uses the SWPC sunspot number. The International Sunspot Number is typically about one-third lower than the SWPC sunspot number.

“While this is SWPC’s official Cycle 25 prediction, it’s important to note there is still divergence among various forecasting methods and members of the space weather forecasting community,” Donovan said. “Most forecasts and forecasters agree that the Cycle 25 peak is likely to be within ±20% of Cycle 24 and is likely to occur between 2024 and 2027.”

More information is on the Springer Nature website. — Thanks to The Daily DX

 

 

 



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