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The K7RA Solar Update

08/26/2016

Solar activity over the past week (August 18-24) was down compared to the previous week, with average daily sunspot number s declining from 73.9 to 33.9, and average daily solar flux from 89.2 to 79.6. 

Average planetary A index increased from 6.9 to 9.7, while the mid-latitude number rose from 7.4 to 8.7.

The latest prediction (on August 25, 2016) shows expected solar flux at 78 on August 26-29, 80 on August 30-31, 85 on September 1-3, 90 on September 4-10, 88 on September 11-12, 85 on September 13, 80 on September 14-15, then 78 and 75 on September 16-17, 80 on September 18-20, 84 on September 21-22, then 82, 80 and 78 on September 23-25, 75 on September 26-28, 80 and 85 on September 29-30, and 90 on October 1-7.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5 and 8 on August 26-28, then 20, 25 and 12 on August 29-31, 10 on September 1-2, 12 on September 3-4, 15 on September 5-6, then 8 and 10 on September 7-8, 5 on September 9-12, 10 and 8 on September 13-14, 5 on September 15-16, then 8, 7, 8, 12 and 8 on September 17-21, 5 on September 22-24, then 15, 25 and 18 on September 25-27, 15 on September 28-29, 12 on September 30 to October 1, and 15 on October 2-3.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 26-September 21, 2016 from Petr Kolman, OK1MGW.

Geomagnetic field will be:

Quiet on August 27

Mostly quiet on August 26, September 9-11, 14-16, 18

Quiet to unsettled on August 31, September 1-3, 6-8, 12, 17

Quiet to active on August 28-30, September 4-5, 13, 19-21

Active to disturbed on August (29-30)

Increases in solar wind from coronal holes are expected on August 28-30, September 4-5, 12-13, 17, 19-21

Remarks:

- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

 

NOAA released an interesting bulletin regarding a new site for watching Total Electron Content of the ionosphere. But first, their page defining TEC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/total-electron-content

 

And now, the announcement:

“SWPC has deployed an updated and expanded version of its US Total Electron Content (US-TEC) model. The model can now use more GPS stations, has increased coverage to all of North America and added scale information that indicates position error. Now, two web pages are supported by the model, North American Total Electron Content: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/north-american-total-electron-content

“And, US Region Total Electron Content: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/north-american-total-electron-content-us-region

“Both are currently hosted on our experimental pages for customer evaluation before being promoted formally to operations. Promotion to operations is planned for 9/26. At the same time the current US-TEC model will be decommissioned. Comments on the updated model can be provided on our feedback page: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/contact-us

 

Andy Gudas, N7TP, of Amargosa Valley, Nevada sent this article, another one about an artificial ionosphere. http://dailym.ai/2bcIR2N

 

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

 

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

 

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

 

Sunspot numbers for August 18 through 24 were 54, 37, 12, 11, 33, 47, and 43, with a mean of 33.9. 10.7 cm flux was 82.4, 80.8, 78.1, 76.7, 80, 81.3, and 78, with a mean of 79.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 4, 10, 5, 18, and 19, with a mean of 9.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 5, 4, 9, 6, 12, and 17, with a mean of 8.7.

 



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