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The K7RA Solar Update

11/03/2017

Average daily sunspot number increased from 13.4 to 17.7 for the October 26 to November 1 period, compared to the previous seven days. The main reason for the difference was that the previous seven days started out with two days with no sunspots, and the latter period ended with one day of zero sunspots, on November 1.

Predicted solar flux is 74 on November 3-4, 73 on November 5-9, 71 on November 10, 70 on November 11-13, 71 on November 14, 72 on November 15-16, 73 and 74 on November 17-18, 75 on November 19-28, 72 on November 29-30, 70 on December 1-10, 71 on December 11, 72 on December 12-13, then 73 and 74 on December 14-15 and 75 on December 16-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November 3, 5 on November 4-5, then 8, 16, 25, 30, 28, 25 and 8 on November 6-12, then 5 on November 13-14, then 12, 10 and 8 on November 15-17, 5 on November 18-19, then 20 on November 20-22, 5 on November 23-27, 8 on November 28, 15 on November 29-30, then 10, 8, 5, 25 and 28 on December 1-5, then 35, 25, 20 and 8 on December 6-9, 5 on December 10-11, then 12, 10 and 8 on December 12-14, then 5 on December 15-16 and 18 on December 17.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 3-29, 2017 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

“Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on November 4, 6, 12-13, 23-27
Mostly quiet on November 3, 5, 16-19
Quiet to unsettled on November 15, 20
Quiet to active on November 7, 11, 14, 22
Active to disturbed on November 8-10, (21)

Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected November (3,) 9-14, 20-21

Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- Current forecasts remain less reliable.”


Lately, it seems we cannot get enough of Hisako Koyama. Yet another story appeared this week at Syfy.com: http://bit.ly/2xT7WJj

Don’t miss the links at the end of the article showing detailed instructions for sketching sunspots.

Dr. Tamitha Skov on October 31: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrUxUXTaL7A


Jon Jones, N0JK wrote: "Jeff, N8II's comments concerning the 10 meter openings in the ARLP043 Propagation bulletin inspired me to check 10 meters in the CQ WW SSB contest last weekend.

“Saturday afternoon, October 28, was not good in Kansas, with only a few very weak Argentinian and Brazilian stations coming through.

“The following day was much better. I set up fixed mobile station running 100 W and a full size 1/4 wave whip at 1905z in eastern Kansas on a hilltop. It was a sunny afternoon, with temperatures in the middle 60s. FM5BH went into the log at 1909z, followed by a very loud HI3T at 1911z, then CU4DX on 28.325 MHz for the only European at 1912z. Over the next hour and half, I logged around 40 more stations, a mixture of Caribbean, Central America and South America. DX included FY5KE, PZ5K, OA4SS, HC2G and HP1XT. Some short F2 propagation occurred and I put CO8RH in the log at 1952z and Stan, K5GO, at ZF9CW at 2002z. Not bad for a solar flux of 75."


For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for October 26 through November 1, 2017 were 23, 23, 22, 23, 22, 11, and 0, with a mean of 17.7. 10.7 cm flux was 77.3, 76, 75.4, 75.3, 75.6, 75.4, and 72.6, with a mean of 75.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 20, 5, 6, 4, 3, 3, and 4, with a mean of 6.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 16, 4, 5, 3, 1, 2, and 2, with a mean of 4.7.

 



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